Warsh Turns Hawkish

Welcome back to The Warmup.

Happy Monday. The Fed spoke. The treasuries answered. Crypto is still stuck under $80k.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Warsh Turns Hawkish

• BTC 4H Divergence Play

• Strategy Buys BTC Again

• Calendar

Market: Crypto is pulling back while stocks stay flat, with the VIX and DXY ticking higher, signaling a cautious risk-off tone across markets.

Warsh Turns Hawkish

What’s going on:

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote on Friday said inflation remains "more concerning" and underlying trends have not improved enough. He told markets the Fed still has work to do if prices are not heading back to 2% with confidence.

Rate futures jumped. Odds of a September hike moved from about one-third before the speech toward roughly 60% after. The 2-year Treasury yield rose as traders priced tighter policy sooner.

Bitcoin had tagged a three-month high near $81,000 earlier in the week. It is back under $79,000 this morning.

What it means:

Higher hike odds usually lift the dollar and yields. Bitcoin sits in the high-beta bucket that gets sold first when the Fed sounds hawkish.

The next hard data is Friday's August jobs report, then CPI the week after, ahead of the Sept 15–16 FOMC. Until then, the Warsh tape sets the mood.

BTC 4H Divergence Play

What’s going on:

BTC is holding the rising trendline while RSI shows bullish divergence.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Support: $78K → trendline

• Resistance: $80.5K–$81K

• Target: $82K+

• Invalidation: Lose $77.6K

Directional Bias: Bullish

As long as the trendline holds, the setup remains intact.

Strategy Buys BTC Again

What’s going on:

Strategy (MSTR) bought 4,603 BTC for about $369.7 million between Aug 24 and Aug 30, at an average of $80,318, according to an 8-K filed Monday. Holdings are now 845,050 BTC.

Funding came from MSTR ATM sales: 4.53 million shares for about $602.8 million. Of that, $369.7 million went to bitcoin, $151.8 million to STRC buybacks, $50.7 million to STRC dividends, and $30 million to USD Cash. Saylor posted "We're back" on Sunday.

What it means:

Last week's cash build was not a permanent pause. Strategy is buying again while keeping a large USD buffer ($5.1B reserve, $1.61B cash as of Aug 30).

Treasury buying does not erase a hawkish Fed. It does put a large corporate bid back on the tape after weeks of sitting out.

Key Events this Week

Major token unlocks:

• SUI: unlock Tue Sep 1

• ENA: unlock Wed Sep 2

• HYPE: unlock Sat Sep 6

Macroeconomic data calendar:

• Tue Sep 1: ISM Manufacturing, JOLTS job openings (July)

• Wed Sep 2: ADP employment (August), Fed Beige Book

• Thu Sep 3: Jobless claims, ISM Services

• Fri Sep 4: August Employment Situation (NFP, unemployment, wages)

• Mon Sep 7: U.S. Labor Day (markets closed)

Major Earnings Releases:

• Sep 10–11: PPI, then CPI (August)

• Sep 15–16: FOMC decision + SEP

• Kalshi becomes exclusive prediction market partner of US Open

• Chainalysis accuses ICE of unfairly steering $95M blockchain contract to TRM Labs

• Layer 1 blockchain Fogo halts mainnet after attacker receives 400M FOGO tokens

Warsh moved the rate path. Strategy and Bitmine show the corporate bid did not leave with the speech.

The week ahead is data.

Jobs Friday, then CPI into the Sept 15–16 FOMC. That sequence decides whether $78k–$80k is a pause or a fade.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.