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- Warsh Speaks at Jackson Hole
Warsh Speaks at Jackson Hole
PLUS: Schwab Adds SOL, AVAX, and LINK
Welcome back to The Warmup.
Happy Friday. The Fed gets the mic, and crypto gets to find out whether $80k was a floor or a tease.
Here’s what we’re watching:
Market Snapshot
Warsh Speaks at Jackson Hole
BTC Breakout Watch
Schwab Adds SOL, AVAX, and LINK
Market: Crypto is pulling back while stocks stay flat, with the VIX and DXY ticking higher.
Warsh Speaks at Jackson Hole
What’s going on:
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his first Jackson Hole keynote today.
The Kansas City Fed symposium runs Aug 27–29 under "Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy." Cryptocurrencies and stablecoins are on the agenda.
Warsh took the chair on May 22, 2026. This is his first big-stage speech in the job.
Bitcoin tagged a three-month high near $81,000 overnight, then slipped back under $80,000.
U.S. rate futures were pricing roughly a 40% chance of a September hike ahead of the speech, up from about 33% a week earlier.
What it means:
Hawkish talk usually lifts the dollar and yields, and bitcoin gets sold first. Patient talk does the opposite.
The theme can move sentiment even if Warsh never names a ticker. Rate language still matters more for the next few sessions.
Watch hike odds, the dollar, and whether spot bitcoin holds the $78k–$80k zone.
CRCL 200D Reclaim Play
What’s going on:
CRCL has rallied hard off the $60 lows and is now trading back above its 200-day SMA near $84.9. That’s a notable shift, as price is starting to reclaim a key trend level.
Key levels we’re watching:
Support: $85 → key reclaim zone
Resistance: $95 → near-term hurdle
Breakout target: $100–$110 if momentum holds
Breakdown risk: Lose $84 and the setup weakens
Directional Bias: Bullish
As long as CRCL holds above the 200D SMA, this looks like a trend reversal attempt rather than just a dead-cat bounce.
What we’re waiting for:
Hold above $85
Clean push through $95
Follow-through toward $100+ with strength
Schwab Adds SOL, AVAX, and LINK
What’s going on:
Charles Schwab said Thursday it plans to add Solana, Avalanche, and Chainlink to Schwab Crypto in the coming months. The platform already lists bitcoin and ethereum after a May 2026 rollout.
Clients buy and sell inside the same brokerage they use for stocks. Pricing is 75 basis points of trade value. No firm launch date. Schwab can delay or pull the listing.
SOL jumped on the headline and is holding above $100 this morning.
What it means:
The token sits next to the equity ticket for tens of millions of brokerage accounts. That lowers friction.
Access news can reprice a token before the product goes live. Volumes later tell you if demand stuck.
XRP and other high-demand names were left out. Schwab said more assets will come.
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 | BTC: |
If Warsh sounds hawkish this morning, what do you do with crypto risk? |
A Fed speech does not rewrite bitcoin's long-term story. It rewrites the next few sessions of liquidity.
ETF inflows and Schwab's listings are what still matter after the speech fades. The speech decides whether those buyers get a calm tape or a messy one.
— The Warmup Team
Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.