Welcome back to The Warmup.

Happy Wednesday to all trenchers waiting for retail to come back.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Visa Steps Into the Stablecoin Ring

• Bitcoin Short Setup

• Oil Above $85 Puts a Lid on Crypto

Market: Gold is leading the market higher, while crypto and equities remain mixed, with Ethereum and the Dow showing relative strength.

Today!

The exact framework behind the $1,000,000 trade.

A guide on how to:

• Find asymmetric opportunities

• Build conviction before the crowd catches on

• Manage risk while positioning for maximum upside

A framework you’ll keep using.

Last chance to claim your seat and get the blueprint.

Visa Steps Into the Stablecoin Ring

What’s going on:

Visa just launched a platform that lets banks and fintechs create, hold, and move their own stablecoins (dollar-pegged digital tokens) directly on Visa's rails.

It opens with a token called Open USD, turning the world's biggest payments network from a card processor into a stablecoin issuer.

That's a direct shot at Circle (USDC) and Tether (USDT), the two firms that dominate the space today.

What it means:

Issuing stablecoins is quietly one of crypto's best businesses, issuers earn interest on the billions in reserves backing the tokens.

Visa's brand and its existing bank relationships could pull big institutions in fast, which is exactly the audience Circle and Tether are fighting for.

The catch: Visa is late. USDT ($184B) and USDC ($73B) already own the market, and US rules are still being written.

Still, when the biggest name in payments enters the race, the race changes.

Bitcoin Short Setup

What’s going on:

Bitcoin is bouncing, but still trading below the 200D SMA at $72.8K.

If the four-year cycle thesis is right and the bottom comes in October, this may be the last big Bitcoin short setup of the cycle.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Resistance: $67.3K

• Ideal short entry: Rejection at the 200D SMA ($72.8K)

• Support: $64.8K

• Downside targets: $59.1K, then $56.4K

• Invalidation: Reclaim above the 200D SMA

Directional Bias: Bearish

The best setup is a move into the 200D SMA followed by rejection.

What we’re waiting for:

• A rally toward $72K–$73K

• Clear rejection at the 200D SMA

• Tight risk management if BTC reclaims that level

If this cycle timing is correct, this could be the final major BTC short before the bottom.

Oil Above $85 Puts a Lid on Crypto

What’s going on:

Bitcoin slipped from a one-month high after WTI crude topped $85 a barrel for the first time since June.

Pricier oil stokes inflation fears, which lowers the odds the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates soon and cheap money is what fuels risky assets like crypto.

So investors rotated toward gold and cash, and away from altcoins.

What it means:

For newer investors, the lesson is that crypto doesn't trade in a bubble. What the Fed and the economy do often matters more than any chart.

June inflation actually cooled (annual CPI 3.5%, core 2.6%), but a fresh oil spike threatens to undo that progress.

We saw this movie in 2022: energy prices jumped, the Fed hiked hard, and risk assets got crushed. Watch oil and the Fed as closely as you watch Bitcoin.

• Bitcoin, ether ETFs snap eight-week outflow streaks with $282M combined inflow

• Senate races to advance crypto legislation in July as housing bill turmoil threatens timeline

• Hyundai Card completes its first real-world stablecoin pilot with Avalanche, Tether

The biggest crypto story of 2026 is the plumbing. While Bitcoin chops sideways, giants like Visa and Hyundai are quietly wiring stablecoins into everyday finance, one pilot and one platform at a time.

Prices, meanwhile, feel stuck. Bitcoin sits near $66K, Ethereum is still under $2K, and ETFs only just snapped an eight-week stretch of outflows. Sentiment is soft, oil is climbing, and rate-cut hopes keep fading. Infrastructure progress and price action rarely move in lockstep.

But the unglamorous build-out is usually where durable value forms. The quiet, boring stretches (not the euphoric ones) tend to plant the roots of the next cycle. For beginners, that's the edge: patience beats pulse-checking.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.