- The Warmup by Kaizen
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- Trump Bends on Crypto Ethics
Trump Bends on Crypto Ethics
PLUS: Labs Talk Slow. Capex Does Not.
Welcome back to The Warmup.
Happy Monday to everyone except Dario and Sam, currently body-slamming AI stocks.
Here’s what we’re watching:
Market Snapshot
Trump Bends on Crypto Ethics
HYPE Breakdown Play
Labs Talk Slow. Capex Does Not.
Calendar
Market: Risk-off in TradFi, while crypto holds strong.
Trump Bends on Crypto Ethics
What’s going on:
Trump agreed to new ethics rules on the CLARITY Act, the bill that would set US market rules for crypto.
Officials with large crypto holdings would have to sell them or put them in a blind trust. That covers about 80% of the bipartisan plan.
The rules apply to Trump as well as other officials and judges.
Tuesday is not the final law. It is a cloture vote: a door. Yes means the Senate can debate the bill. No likely shelves it until after the midterms.
What it means:
Banks and funds have been waiting on this rulebook before they commit real size.
A yes is only a path. A no is another year of messy rules. Markets still treat a signed 2026 law as the underdog.
Watch Tuesday, then the Fed on Wednesday.
HYPE Breakdown Play
What’s going on:
HYPE broke below its rising channel, shifting short-term momentum bearish.
Key levels we’re watching:
Resistance: $82.5 → $86.8
Support: $76.8
Downside target: $70
Invalidation: Reclaim $82.5+
Directional Bias: Cautiously bearish
A reclaim of the channel would flip the setup back bullish.
What we’re waiting for:
Retest of $82.5 as resistance
Continued selling below $76.8
Volume confirmation on the move
HYPE is still strong structurally, but the channel breakdown favors sellers for now.
Labs Talk Slow. Capex Does Not.
What’s going on:
The bosses at the biggest AI labs said the industry should ease off how fast new models get built. Tech opened soft. Chips took the first hit.
That fight is about training the next giant model. It is not about unplugging data centers. Memory is already booked years out. $NVDA ( ▼ 3.43% ) and $MU ( ▼ 6.28% ) are still short of supply.
The US is racing China. If Beijing looks close, the pause talk ends.
What it means:
A weekend essay is not a spending freeze.
Each lab likes rules that slow the other guy first.
The build keeps going, focus on CAPEX guidance.
 | MSTR: |
 | HYPE: |
 | ARB: |
Key Events this Week
Major token unlocks:
Starknet (STRK): $3.6M on Sep 15 (3.5% of circulating supply)
Arbitrum (ARB): $13M on Sep 16 (1.6% of circulating supply)
LayerZero (ZRO): $26M on Sep 20 (4% of circulating supply)
Macroeconomic data calendar:
Tue (Sep 15):
Empire State Manufacturing survey
Senate cloture vote on the CLARITY Act (2:15pm ET). Needs 60 votes to open debate.
Wed (Sep 16):
August retail sales. A second weak month would mean the Fed is tightening into a softer consumer.
FOMC rate decision and press conference. Markets price an 80% chance of a 25bp hike to 3.75–4.00%.
Thu (Sep 17):
Housing starts, building permits, jobless claims
Bank of England rate decision (hold at 3.75% is the base case)
Fri (Sep 18):
US industrial production and capacity utilization
Japan CPI and Bank of Japan decision
Quarterly US options expiration. Extra volatility into the close.
Does Tuesday's CLARITY vote change how you hold crypto this week? |
This week is noisy by design. A crypto bill vote Tuesday. A Fed decision Wednesday. AI founders talking about tapping the brakes. It feels like you have to pick a side before lunch.
You don't. The ethics deal made the Senate path cleaner. It did not turn Tuesday into a final exam for bitcoin. A rate hike is what most of the market already expects. A hold would be the surprise that lifts risk. Either way, one print is not the cycle.
Rules in Washington are moving, slowly. AI infrastructure is still getting built, even when the founders sound careful. Those two things compound while the headlines rotate. Stay sized so a red Tuesday does not force a sale you did not plan.
— The Warmup Team
Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.