The Robot Companies You Can't Buy

Welcome back to The Warmup.

AI stocks are getting cooked, crypto founders are getting arrested, and somehow it’s only Wednesday. What’s new?

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• The Robot Companies You Can't Buy

• Google Triangle Breakout

• Bitcoin Steadies Near $83k

Market: Crypto and equities are mostly in the red, while the stronger dollar and rising VIX point to continued market uncertainty.

The Robot Companies You Can't Buy

What’s going on:

Figure rented thirty homes in the Bay Area and sent robots into them. The robots were running Helix 2.5, released September 17, and had never been inside any of those houses.

No data was collected there and nothing was tuned to the rooms or the objects in them. The tasks were tidying living rooms, folding towels and making beds, all trivial for a person and all resistant to robotics for decades.

The robots completed 56% of the tasks end to end. An otherwise identical model completed 9% without pretraining on Index, Figure's dataset of human behavior.

Both ran on the same robot with the same architecture, so pretraining data accounts for the more than sixfold gap.

Robot learning has generally held up inside the spaces where training data was collected and fallen apart outside them, which is why demonstrations rarely transfer to a customer's house.

Figure is private, as are Apptronik, Dyna Robotics, Standard Bots, Path Robotics and Maven Robotics, which came out of stealth on September 10 with a $100 million Series A and robots already working in warehouses.

What it means:

RoboStrategy (Nasdaq: $BOT ( ▼ 0.47% ) ) is designed to give public-market investors exposure to that private side of the market.

Humanoids get the attention because they look like us, but most of the category does not. Standard Bots builds industrial arms that factory workers teach by demonstration.

Maven's machine rolls through a warehouse stacking boxes of different sizes onto one pallet. Endiatx is developing a robot small enough to swallow, which a physician steers while watching live video from inside the stomach.

BOT holds seventeen private companies across that stack. Its closed-end structure is built to hold long-duration private investments while allowing shares to trade through standard brokerage accounts.

Full holdings: robostrategy.co/portfolio

Helix 2.5 ran on hardware Figure builds and was trained on data Figure owns. Most of the American companies doing this work still have no ticker at all.

These are selected publicly reported items, not a complete picture, and they say nothing about the fund's overall portfolio performance or the performance of these investments for the fund.

This is sponsored content. Kaizen was compensated by RoboStrategy, Inc. in connection with this content. This communication is for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Google Triangle Breakout

What’s going on:

Google is approaching the apex of a symmetrical triangle, with price around $354.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Longs: Break above $361

• Shorts: Break below $336

Directional Bias: Neutral until breakout

What we’re waiting for:

• Clean breakout with volume confirmation

• Follow-through before entering

Let price pick the direction. Trade the breakout, not the prediction.

Bitcoin Steadies Near $83k

What’s going on:

Bitcoin traded around $83,000 on Wednesday after dipping below $82,000 earlier in the week and triggering over $770 million in liquidations, mostly from long positions. Ethereum held near $2,500.

Corporate buyers kept adding. Strive bought 3,311 BTC for roughly $280 million, its largest purchase since January, while Strategy added another 250 BTC.

What it means:

The liquidation flush cleared some leveraged positions, helping prices stabilize. Corporate buying provides support, but leverage can build back quickly if traders chase the rebound.

For beginners, the key is to avoid mistaking a short-term bounce for a confirmed trend reversal.

• Ledger confirms hardware implant in CryptoBilis reseller units as MediaMarkt suspends sales in Europe

• DRW and Marex complete OTC swap referencing tokenized S&P iBoxx Index

• Strive buys 3,311 bitcoin for $280M in largest acquisition since January

AI stocks are getting hammered, crypto founders are making headlines for all the wrong reasons, and markets are doing their best to keep everyone on their toes. The dollar is climbing, most major assets are in the red, and Bitcoin is trying to find its footing after a $770 million liquidation flush.

But it's not all doom and gloom. Corporate buyers are still stacking Bitcoin, and the race to build real-world robots keeps moving forward, even if most of the companies doing it aren't publicly traded yet.

The takeaway? The market is giving us plenty of noise, but not every headline is a signal. Keep an eye on the bigger picture, don't chase every bounce, and remember that sometimes the best trade is doing absolutely nothing.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.