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The Path to $1M Bitcoin Is Getting Clearer
PLUS: Bitcoin Is Quietly Beating Gold and Stocks Again
Welcome back to The Warmup.
Happy Wednesday! This is me at the dinner table waiting to switch the conversation to Claude, peptides and energy stocks.
Here’s what we’re watching:
Market Snapshot
The Path to $1M Bitcoin Is Getting Clearer
BTC EMA200 Trend Play
Bitcoin Is Quietly Beating Gold and Stocks Again
Market: Crypto is slightly down across majors while equities remain resilient, suggesting a short-term risk rotation into stocks as volatility cools and the dollar edges higher.
The Path to $1M Bitcoin Is Getting Clearer
What’s going on:
Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan says Bitcoin could reach $1 million by capturing a larger share of the global store-of-value market, currently worth about ~$38 trillion and still dominated by gold.
He argues investors often underestimate BTC’s upside because they ignore how quickly this market has grown.
Since the first U.S. gold ETF launched in 2004, store-of-value assets have expanded sharply amid rising debt, geopolitical tensions, and easy monetary policy.
If that growth continues, the market could reach $120T within the next decade. In that case, Bitcoin would only need to capture roughly 17% share to justify a $1M price.
What it means:
Meanwhile, adoption tailwinds are building.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are seeing strong inflows, institutional allocations are increasing, and long-term volatility has declined making BTC more viable as a portfolio asset.
The $1M Bitcoin narrative is ultimately about market share.
If the store-of-value pie keeps expanding and Bitcoin keeps gaining relevance within it, much higher prices become structurally possible over time.
BTC EMA200 Trend Play
What’s going on:
BTC broke below the 4H EMA200 (blue) and has since been forming lower highs and lower lows, keeping the short-term trend bearish.
Price is still trading below this key level, meaning sellers remain in control for now.
Key levels we’re watching:
Resistance: ~$70.5K → reclaiming the 4H EMA200 is first bullish signal
Range resistance: ~$72K → breakout could fuel a relief rally
Support: ~$64K → recent demand zone
Breakdown risk: Lose $64K → opens downside continuation
What we’re waiting for:
Sustained closes above the 4H EMA200
Higher highs to confirm structure shift
Volume confirmation on breakout attempts
We Published This HYPE Setup. Then It Did 21% in 5 days.
(👆️ Click the link in the image to see last Wednesday’s edition where we called the trade.)
This is a repeatable process.
In last Wednesday’s edition of The Warmup, we laid out the HYPE long thesis. The setup above is the result.
Up 26% in just 5 days.
Inside the Kaizen Discord, world class analysts break down live setups like this every single week, showing not just what to buy, but why the trade works.
If you want to stop guessing and start understanding the game, this is where that education lives.
Bitcoin Is Quietly Beating Gold and Stocks Again
What’s going on:
When tensions around Iran shook global markets, Bitcoin initially dropped toward the low-$60Ks as traders sold risk assets.
But the bounce has been strong. BTC quickly recovered toward the $70K area, gaining roughly 12% while gold and major stock indices struggled to move higher.
Behind that relative strength, large buyers seem to be stepping in.
The Coinbase premium has turned positive again, pointing to renewed U.S. institutional demand. Onchain data also shows heavy dip absorption, with hundreds of thousands of BTC moving into stronger hands.
Corporate accumulation is adding fuel as well.
Strategy continues funding fresh Bitcoin purchases through capital market activity tied to its STRC product, with recent sessions generating enough flows to translate into thousands of BTC worth of buy pressure in just days.
What it means:
Bitcoin outperforming both equities and traditional safe havens during macro volatility strengthens the “digital gold” narrative.
If institutional inflows and treasury buying remain consistent, BTC could keep showing relative strength versus other major assets.
For now, the signal is simple: big players are buying the dip and that dynamic can keep supporting price even when broader markets wobble.
 | CRCL: |
 | BTC: |
 | SOL: |
 | AAVE: |
Will Bitcoin reach $1 million in the next 10 years? |
Finding edge in crypto trading comes from deeply understanding specific protocols, market structure, and positioning capital to exploit moments of inefficiency when others are forced to act.
Many of the biggest opportunities appear during volatility events, where liquidity gaps or structural dynamics create asymmetric trades with clearly defined risk-reward.
Long-term value in crypto is expected to concentrate around durable use cases like Bitcoin as a monetary asset, decentralized trading platforms such as Hyperliquid, and the continued global growth of stablecoins.
Ultimately, successful traders build flexible portfolios with multiple “levers” (spot, futures, options, cash) so they can adapt quickly and capture opportunities as cycles evolve.
— The Warmup Team
Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.