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- The Crypto S&P 500 Is Here
The Crypto S&P 500 Is Here
PLUS: Wall St Bets $2B on Prediction Markets
Welcome back to The Warmup.
Wednesdays in Uptober hit different. The vibes are bullish, the candles are green, and the month-long party is just getting louder.
Here’s what we’re watching:
Market Snapshot
The Crypto S&P 500 Is Coming
BTC $116K Retest Play
NYSE Owner Bets Big on Polymarket
Market: Crypto majors are pulling back, with ETH and SOL leading the drop while BTC stays relatively resilient. Stocks also softened as the S&P 500 edged lower.
The Crypto S&P 500 Is Coming
What’s going on:
Standard & Poor’s is creating a new index for digital assets called the Digital Markets 50 (DM50). Think of it as the Crypto S&P 500.
In traditional markets, the S&P 500 is more than a list of companies. It is the benchmark for global investing. Institutions like pensions, hedge funds, and sovereign wealth funds are often required to hold S&P companies.
That steady demand helps drive prices higher whenever a new company is added.
History proves it works.
Now S&P is aiming to bring that same influence to crypto with DM50.
What it means:
The 50 tokens selected could become the default exposure for institutions. If funds treat DM50 the same way they treat the S&P 500, the chosen tokens will likely benefit from consistent buy pressure.
The exact list of tokens will be revealed by year-end. It may not trigger an immediate bull run, but it could quietly set the foundation for institutional adoption and long term inflows.
If your bags get indexed, you might see demand from some of the biggest players in global finance.
BTC $116K Retest Play
What’s going on:
BTC is stalling under resistance at $124K after a sharp move up. A rejection here could flush out high-leverage longs, setting up a clean retest of the $116K zone, which also lines up with the daily EMA50 (orange).
That kind of washout would reset positioning and provide a stronger base for continuation higher.
Key levels we’re watching:
Resistance: $124K–$126K → sellers defending this area
Retest area: $116K → confluence with EMA200 (blue)
Breakout target: $130K+ if bulls reclaim $126K
Breakdown risk: Lose $115K cleanly → opens path to $110K
Directional Bias: Neutral → Bullish
The flush to $116K would be healthy, shaking out weak hands and leveraged longs. Until then, price likely ranges between $120K–$124K.
What we’re waiting for:
Rejection from current resistance zone
Controlled move into $116K without panic selling
Signs of spot accumulation or low-leverage longs in the retest zone
BTC’s structure remains intact. If this scenario plays out, $116K becomes the perfect long entry.
NYSE Owner Bets Big on Polymarket
What’s going on:
Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, is investing up to $2B in Polymarket.
The deal values Polymarket at $8B pre-money, making it the largest player in prediction markets.
Prediction markets let people wager on outcomes across sports, politics, entertainment, and the economy. They’ve been heating up since last year’s U.S. election, with bets ranging from when the government shutdown will end to the least streamed Taylor Swift track.
This investment comes right after Polymarket received approval from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission to re-launch in the U.S., following its $112M purchase of QCEX, a licensed derivatives exchange and clearinghouse.
What it means:
For ICE, the real play is not just facilitating wagers. It is about monetizing event-driven data. Selling odds and sentiment indicators alongside rates and credit could turn prediction markets into a powerful tool for financial markets.
Polymarket also gains a heavyweight backer just as it returns to the U.S. market. With the NYSE owner in its corner, institutional adoption could accelerate quickly.
On top of that, ICE and Polymarket plan to work together on tokenization initiatives, merging Wall Street infrastructure with blockchain technology.
Prediction markets are moving from niche to mainstream. With ICE’s backing, Polymarket could become the standard-bearer for event-driven trading.
 | ARB: |
 | MON (Token NOT live yet): |
 | DOGE: |
 | TRUMP: |
Will the new Crypto S&P 500 (DM50) move markets? |
Bitcoin ETF flows are on track to hit a new record in Q4.
Big wealth managers like Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo just opened the door for advisors to allocate, unlocking pent-up demand.
The “Debasement Trade” is going mainstream, with gold and bitcoin leading as currencies weaken.
With BTC already at all-time highs, momentum plus fresh institutional flows could fuel even bigger inflows before year-end.
— The Warmup Team
Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.