- The Warmup by Kaizen
- Posts
- Tether Drags USDT Back Onto Bitcoin
Tether Drags USDT Back Onto Bitcoin
PLUS: Oil Muscles Back Into the Crypto Tape
Welcome back to The Warmup.
Happy Wednesday to all Kaizen members who made a killing with the $CASHCAT ( ▲ 62749558.63% ) callout! Cheers, guys!
Here’s what we’re watching:
Market Snapshot
STRC Long Setup
Oil Muscles Back Into the Crypto Tape
Market: Risk assets are pulling back, with crypto leading the decline. The rise in the VIX points to growing market caution.
Tether Drags USDT Back Onto Bitcoin
What’s going on:
Tether is issuing USDT natively on Bitcoin again, using the RGB protocol (v0.11.1), with software lab UTEXO leading a commercial rollout expected within weeks.
RGB pairs Bitcoin's UTXO model with the Lightning Network, so USDT can settle instantly and privately at low cost with no separate gas token, the TRX that Tron users hold today.
It's a direct swing at Tron, which has run away with stablecoin transfer volume since USDT drifted off Bitcoin after 2017.
What it means:
USDT was born on Bitcoin in 2014, so this is a homecoming with a competitive edge attached.
If exchanges and wallets integrate, BTC and USDT living on one settlement layer lets users swap between them over Lightning with minimal slippage, a real pull for payments and treasuries.
The catch is adoption: roughly 92% of USDT supply sits on Tron and Ethereum, and that liquidity and tooling won't move on an announcement.
Watch which major exchange lists Bitcoin-native USDT first. That's the tell for whether this sticks.
This is why we do the work before the timeline catches up!
Kaizen called out $CASHCAT ( ▲ 62749558.63% ) around an $8M market cap.
Just hours later, it exploded past $140M.
That's a 17x move!
Deep research, conviction, and getting positioned before everyone else.
We believed Robinhood Chain was the next major ecosystem.
(Like we did with Ski and Base Chain in the past).
$CASHCAT was the highest-conviction asymmetric bet inside it.
Our members saw the thesis before the breakout.
STRC Long Setup
What’s going on:
STRC just had a sharp selloff below $90, but the market may be undervaluing the product after Strategy’s recent pivot.
Strategy is now paying a 12% APR on STRC and has indirectly signaled they’ll backstop it, which could support confidence after the drop.
Key levels we’re watching:
Support: $86–$88 → current bounce zone
Resistance: $90 → first level bulls need to reclaim
Breakout target: $95+ if momentum returns
Breakdown risk: Close below $82 weakens the setup
Directional Bias: Cautiously bullish
The trade is betting that STRC stabilizes after the panic flush and starts repricing closer to its perceived backstop value.
What we’re waiting for:
Spot/perp longs holding above $88
Clean reclaim of $90
Tight risk management, since STRC is still a volatile and sentiment-driven product
STRC isn’t risk-free, but under $90 the risk/reward looks interesting if the market starts trusting Strategy’s support
Oil Muscles Back Into the Crypto Tape
What’s going on:
A fresh strike near the Strait of Hormuz pushed oil higher after Trump declared the Iran ceasefire "over," dragging Asian tech lower and reviving a macro risk the market had shelved.
Bitcoin is shrugging it off for now: holding the low $63,000s, up about 6% on the week after bouncing from a late-June low near $58,000, even absorbing Strategy's $216M (3,588 BTC) sale.
The unusual part: BTC decoupled from sliding AI and chip stocks this week, with South Korea's Kospi down 6.7% while crypto held its ground.
What it means:
For most of 2026, weakness in AI names dragged crypto down with it, so this independence is worth watching closely.
The swing variable now is oil-fed inflation.
A sustained spike hands the Fed a reason to stay tight into the July 29 meeting, and a soft jobs print (57K vs ~100K expected) only carries so far if energy reignites prices.
ETF flows turning positive again (~$265M in a day, IBIT leading) is the offsetting bid. The bounce off $58,000 becomes a base only if that bid keeps showing up.
 | BONK: |
 | MON: |
 | HYPE: |
Can Bitcoin-native USDT actually loosen Tron's grip on stablecoin transfers? |
Crypto is running on a relief bounce.
Conviction hasn't shown up yet. BTC clawed back to the low $63,000s from near $58,000 and absorbed Strategy's sale, yet Fear & Greed still reads 27, squarely in fear.
What changed this week is who's driving. Bitcoin pulled away from the AI and chip stocks that had dictated its every move for months, and ETF flows flickered back to positive after the worst outflow month on record. Then oil re-entered out of Hormuz, a reminder that the first-half macro storm never fully cleared.
The plumbing keeps improving underneath the price. Tether returning USDT to Bitcoin, the SEC drafting real rules, MiCA sorting Europe. Sentiment this grim has historically marked where patient capital gets built, even when the chart refuses to cooperate. We'd rather track the pipes than the mood.
— The Warmup Team
Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.