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- STRC’s Stress Test Is Here
STRC’s Stress Test Is Here
PLUS: Warsh’s First Fed Meeting Comes In Hawkish
Welcome back to The Warmup.
Good morning to everyone who watched me sell HYPE at $74 after buying at $72.50.
Here’s what we’re watching:
Market Snapshot
STRC’s Stress Test Is Here
COIN Support Test
Warsh’s First Fed Meeting Comes In Hawkish
Market: Stocks continue to lead higher while crypto remains under pressure, with investors favoring AI and growth names over digital assets.
STRC’s Stress Test Is Here
What’s going on:
Strategy’s preferred stock STRC is sliding.
It closed below $90 for the second straight day at $88.59, after falling as low as $82.50.
Volume also spiked to 10.7 million shares, about 3x normal levels.
That matters because STRC was designed to trade near $100 through its variable dividend, now around 12.9%.
What it means:
STRC is becoming a confidence gauge for Strategy’s Bitcoin machine.
If it stays below par, Strategy can’t issue new STRC to buy more BTC. Instead, it may need to focus on reserves, dividend support, and stabilizing its preferred stock.
For now, STRC is flashing stress.
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COIN Support Test
What’s going on:
COIN is testing a key support zone around $146, a level that has held multiple times since 2024.
Key levels we’re watching:
Support: $146 → must hold
Resistance: $200 → first major upside level
Breakout target: $250+
Breakdown risk: Weekly close below $146
Directional Bias: Neutral
COIN is at a make-or-break level. If support holds, it could bounce hard. If it breaks, downside could accelerate.
What we’re waiting for:
Strong reaction off support
Higher lows
Volume on any move above $200
Support has held before, but repeated tests weaken it. This is a key spot to watch.
Warsh’s First Fed Meeting Comes In Hawkish
What’s going on:
The Fed held rates at 3.50% to 3.75%, marking its fourth straight pause.
The hold was expected. The hawkish tone was not.
In Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair, the updated dot plot showed the median 2026 rate projection rising to 3.8%, up from 3.4% in March.
That means the Fed is now signaling a possible hike instead of a cut.
Warsh reinforced that message in the press conference, stressing inflation, the 2% target, and removing the easing bias from the statement.
Markets quickly repriced. The 2-year yield jumped, stocks sold off, and odds of a September hike rose sharply.
What it means:
Crypto took the harder hit. The summer recovery thesis just got weaker.
Crypto needed easing liquidity and lower macro pressure.
A hawkish Fed does the opposite by pushing yields higher, strengthening the dollar, and delaying cuts.
Stocks are already bouncing, so this may be more of a crypto-specific problem, possibly tied to the Saylor/MSTR overhang.
Either way, the clean “winter is over” bounce now looks more like summer chop.
 | AAVE: |
 | ETH: |
 | XPL: |
Warsh’s hawkish Fed meeting, crypto weakness mostly from: |
The market is flashing many of the same signals that have historically appeared near major bottoms: capitulation, extreme bearish sentiment, negative positioning, and widespread investor exhaustion.
While nobody can call the exact low, the data suggests the risk-reward is becoming increasingly asymmetric in favor of long-term buyers rather than sellers.
The crowd is overwhelmingly focused on downside, but history shows the best opportunities often emerge when fear, not fundamentals, is driving the narrative.
If these indicators continue to follow previous cycles, the biggest surprise from here may not be another collapse, but a recovery that catches most investors completely offside.
— The Warmup Team
Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.