Strategy Hits the Brakes

Welcome back to The Warmup.

Happy Monday everyone, pretending the good old days were actually good.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Strategy Hits the Brakes

• Amazon At a Key Inflection Point

• Two Red Quarters in a Row?

• Calendar

Market: Stocks continue pushing higher while crypto cools off. Solana remains the standout performer, and lower volatility suggests risk appetite is still strong.

Strategy Hits the Brakes

What’s going on:

Strategy paused Bitcoin buys last week, even after raising $1.15B through MSTR share sales.

Instead, the company boosted its USD reserve to $2.55B and launched a $1B buyback program for its digital credit securities, with STRC likely first in line.

That’s a big shift.

For years, the playbook was simple: issue stock, buy Bitcoin, repeat.

Now, with MSTR down hard, STRC trading far below par, and mNAV falling below 1, the company is being forced to protect the balance sheet.

What it means:

Strategy is no longer just in “stack BTC at all costs” mode.

It now has to manage dividends, debt, preferred stock pressure, and investor confidence.

The biggest signal: Strategy may even sell Bitcoin to fund reserves, dividends, or buybacks.

That doesn’t mean the thesis is dead, but the machine has clearly changed.

The Bitcoin flywheel is slowing down.

Amazon At a Key Inflection Point

What’s going on:

AMZN reclaimed its 200-day moving average after a failed breakdown last week.

Bulls have regained short-term momentum, but price still needs to clear nearby resistance to confirm a trend reversal.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Support: $233 → 200-day MA and key line in the sand

• Resistance: $250 → first major hurdle

• Bull target: $260–270 if momentum continues

• Bear target: $220 if the 200-day MA fails again

Directional Bias: Neutral

The previous short thesis has weakened. The next move likely depends on whether bulls can hold above the 200-day MA and push through $250.

Two Red Quarters in a Row?

What’s going on:

Bitcoin is trading below $60K and is heading for a rare second straight quarterly loss, down 12% after a 22% drop in Q1.

The pressure has been consistent: ETF outflows, a hawkish Fed, a strong dollar, and investors chasing AI winners like semis and memory stocks.

Altcoins have been hit even harder.

ETH is down 47% this year, while DOGE, XRP, and HYPE all saw double-digit losses this week.

What it means:

The big question is whether Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is breaking.

But history offers some hope.

The last two times Bitcoin closed two red six-month candles in a row, in 2018 and 2022, it was followed by multi-year rallies.

With Fear & Greed sitting at 18, we could be seeing the kind of capitulation that has marked previous bottoms.

Great time to focus on quality and keep a long-term mindset.

The obvious AI trades may already be crowded

The next winners could be hiding deeper in the stack.

While everyone chases the model makers, a trillion-dollar wave of spending is flowing into power, chips, networking, and data center infrastructure.

We show you where the money is going, what's constraining the industry, and how to position for the next phase of the AI buildout.

Key Events this Week

Macroeconomic data calendar:

Mon (Jun 29):

• US Markets React to Strait of Hormuz Strikes: Investors digest geopolitical tensions → energy prices, defense stocks, and risk assets could see increased volatility.

Tue (Jul 1):

• May JOLTs Job Openings: Measures labor demand → stronger openings signal a resilient job market, while weaker data points to cooling employment.

• June CB Consumer Confidence: Tracks consumer optimism → higher confidence supports spending and economic growth.

Wed (Jul 2):

• June ISM Manufacturing PMI: Key manufacturing survey → readings above 50 indicate expansion, while below 50 signal contraction.

Thu (Jul 3):

• June Jobs Report: The week's biggest macro event → strong data could reduce expectations for rate cuts, while weaker numbers may support easing.

Fri (Jul 4):

• US Markets Closed: Happy Independence Day! 🇺🇸

Major Earnings Releases:

• Tue (Jul 1): Nike

• Bernstein says prediction-market infrastructure rush could spark wave of M&A across consumer platforms

• Bitcoin clings to key support level as weekly US spot ETF outflows hit $1.8B and Fed rate hike bets mount: analysts

• Vitalik Buterin calls obfuscation cryptography’s 'final boss,' but says current approaches remain wildly impractical

The crypto market is no longer rewarding every token with a story.

Right now, it is rewarding trust, transparency, and actual revenue, which is why Hyperliquid keeps attracting the bid while most alts bleed out.

Ethereum still has violent upside potential from oversold levels, but traders are expressing that more carefully through derivatives instead of blind spot buying.

The next 6–12 months may come down to a simple question: which projects can earn the market’s trust before the next real wave of capital returns?

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.