Sorry Bears, JPMorgan Isn’t Calling Winter

Welcome back to The Warmup.

Silver-stackers think they're main characters, crypto just needed a bathroom break.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• JPMorgan Thinks This Isn’t Crypto Winter

• XRP Inflection Play

• Bitcoin’s Liquid Supply Is Getting Thinner

Market: ETH leads, SOL steady, BTC climbing while macro stays mostly flat giving crypto space to run.

JPMorgan Thinks This Isn’t Crypto Winter

What’s going on:

Bitcoin has cooled off, fear is high, and timelines are full of doomsday takes. Yet JPMorgan is looking at the same chart and seeing something different.

Their latest note frames this move as a sharp correction, not a reset of the bull market.

They highlight a few temporary pressure points driving the dip:

• ETF outflows tied to basis trades unwinding

• Leveraged longs getting flushed

• Year-end liquidity thinning

• Macro nerves ahead of the Fed

None of that, they argue, signals fading demand for crypto itself. Tokenization efforts, institutional participation, and adoption trends are still pushing forward.

Even Standard Chartered joined in, saying crypto winters may be behind us entirely.

What it means:

The bank’s message is simple. The pullback hurt, but the structure hasn’t changed. Big capital is still moving in.

ETF pipelines and real-world integration are still expanding. The four-year cycle is the last bearish talking point standing.

If price starts grinding back toward ATHs, this entire down move may be remembered as just a reset within a much bigger uptrend.

XRP Inflection Play

What’s going on:

XRP has been smashed back down to the $2.00 support, a level that has held for nearly a year. Volume is thinning out, signaling exhaustion and indecision, while RSI, MACD, and CMF are sitting dead-neutral.

When price, indicators, and volume compress together like this, a sharp move in either direction becomes increasingly likely.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Support: $2.00 → Major line in the sand for bulls

• Resistance: $2.28–$2.35 → Break and hold opens upside momentum

• Breakout target: $2.60+ if volume expansion confirms

• Breakdown risk: Close below $2.00 triggers downside continuation

Directional Bias: Neutral

What we’re waiting for: Bounce + increasing volume off $2.00 for a long setup

Bitcoin’s Liquid Supply Is Getting Thinner

What’s going on:

Bitcoin sitting on exchanges keeps dropping, and this time it’s meaningful.

Over the past year, about 403k BTC have left trading venues, trimming accessible supply by roughly 2% of the entire network. Reserves are now around 2.11M BTC, and most of what leaves doesn’t seem to be coming back.

A big chunk is flowing into cold storage, ETFs, and corporate treasury vaults, where coins tend to stay put.

Onchain data shows that when exchange balances fall over time, it usually leads to fewer major sell events and steadier price action. What’s different today is that institutions are no longer nibbling, they’re swallowing supply.

Combined ETF and corporate holdings now exceed all exchange balances, sitting north of 2.5M BTC, or nearly 11% of circulating supply.

What it means:

Bitcoin is slowly drifting out of the hands of traders and into long-horizon holders.

When fewer coins float on exchanges, the market becomes more sensitive to demand spikes and upside moves get easier. If this pace continues, liquidity thins further and the next supply shock could be sharp.

For anyone accumulating, this environment is exactly what you want.

• Bitcoin ETFs turn positive with $152M in inflows ahead of Fed rate decision

• Binance co-CEO Yi He's WeChat account hacked to promote and profit from memecoin

• Superstate's new Direct Issuance Programs let public companies raise capital using tokenized stock

Ethereum shouldn’t be judged like a traditional tech company trying to post revenue today it’s closer to early-stage Amazon, where the value was in long-term growth, not short-term profit.

Blockchain profit is native and uncapped, and Ethereum could charge more today but chooses adoption over extraction.

Prices may swing, narratives may flip, but the fundamentals haven’t cracked.

If the nail in the wall stays firm, this chapter reads like a correction, not the end of the story.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.