Solana’s Breakpoint Bombshells

Welcome back to The Warmup.

The Fed just closed the QT chapter and CT is now debating if QE is slipping back in after this week’s FOMC, like we’re all trying to defuse a bomb together.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Solana’s Breakpoint Bombshells

• HYPE Breakdown Setup

• Liquidity Is Quietly Coming Back

Market: Crypto is leading risk-on. BTC and ETH are up, SOL is outperforming, and volatility remains low.

Solana’s Breakpoint Bombshells

What’s going on:

Breakpoint dropped some massive shifts for Solana.

Every Solana token will now trade on Coinbase through its new Solana-integrated DEX rails, giving instant liquidity with no listings or approvals.

Institutions can tokenize their own stocks with xStocks’ self-serve system. Deposit shares, mint onchain equities, and trade them across the Solana ecosystem. It’s the clearest TradFi-to-DeFi bridge so far.

Solana leaders say the chain is ready today to support large-scale financial tokenization. Bhutan is already proving it by tokenizing part of its sovereign reserves directly on Solana.

Raoul Pal is calling for an extended cycle and an alt season hitting in 2026, and Solana’s positioning puts it right in the path of that momentum.

What it means:

Solana is no longer talking about the future of tokenization.

It’s rolling it out in real time, pulling in exchanges, institutions, and even governments. If this continues, Solana won’t just be an L1 narrative.

It’ll be a financial infrastructure story.

HYPE Breakdown Setup

What’s going on:

HYPE is rolling over from a broad topping structure that resembles a head and shoulders. The pattern has been forming for months, and price is now sitting right on the neckline around $28 as momentum continues to weaken.

RSI is in the mid 30s and has made lower highs through the right shoulder, signaling fading buyer strength. Recent bounce attempts have come on low volume, suggesting bulls are losing control.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Support: $28 → neckline and decision level

• Resistance: $31 → reclaim needed to invalidate bearish structure

• Breakdown target: Low $20s if $28 fails with volume

• Invalidation: Daily close back above $31 weakens the short thesis

Directional Bias: Cautiously bearish

This is not confirmed yet, but risk skews lower if $28 breaks cleanly.

What we’re waiting for:

• A daily close below $28 with expanding volume

• Momentum continuation to the downside

• Clear rejection on any bounce toward $30–$31

If the neckline snaps, downside opens fast. Until then, this remains a patience trade with defined risk.

Liquidity Is Quietly Coming Back

What’s going on:

The Fed just delivered its third rate cut of the year, but the bigger story wasn’t the 25bps. It was liquidity.

Alongside the cut, the Fed announced $40B in Treasury bill purchases starting December 12, with Powell hinting that buying could stay elevated for months.

They’re avoiding the QE label, but functionally, this injects liquidity into the system.

Yes, there was some hawkish noise.

The Fed signaled a possible pause in future cuts, and two members voted for no change. But importantly, rate hikes are off the table, and uncertainty now is only about staying flat or cutting more.

That’s a very different regime than the one markets lived in over the past two years.

What it means:

Cuts are in, liquidity is rising, and financial conditions are easing at the margins.

Historically, when the Fed cuts rates with markets near all-time highs, risk assets tend to do well over the next 12 months.

We’re not in full-blown easing mode yet, but the direction is clear.

Liquidity is starting to re-enter the system, and markets usually front-run that.

• JPMorgan creates Solana-based USCP token to facilitate 'landmark' Galaxy debt offering

• Coinbase taps Chainlink CCIP to expand wrapped assets like cbBTC and cbXRP to new chains

• New XRP ETF hits the market with launch of 21Shares' TOXR

This pullback feels ugly, but zooming out shows it’s actually the shortest we’ve had in years.

Bottom in or not, every past cycle needed time to reset before ripping to new highs.

Meanwhile, crypto’s fundamentals have never been stronger and the world is moving onchain whether price agrees today or not.

Stay positioned, stay patient, and let the melt-up come to you.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.