- The Warmup by Kaizen
- Posts
- Senate Blocks Crypto's Rulebook
Senate Blocks Crypto's Rulebook
PLUS: Circle Opens Its Own Highway
Welcome back to The Warmup.
The Fed hikes today for the first time in three years. Markets have it at 90%. Bitcoin is sitting on $75,000, waiting on Warsh.
Here’s what we’re watching:
Market Snapshot
Senate Blocks Crypto's Rulebook
META Triangle Breakout
Circle Opens Its Own Highway
Market: Risk assets are mixed, with crypto pulling back while equities remain resilient and gold continues to push higher.
Senate Blocks Crypto's Rulebook
What’s going on:
The Senate could not even start debate on the CLARITY Act. The vote was 49-50. It needed 60.
That bill was the rulebook. Which tokens sit with the CFTC. Which sit with the SEC. Four Republicans voted no. Every Democrat who showed up voted no. Congress now leaves for the midterms.
Bitcoin tagged under $75,000. ETH lost $2,400.
Spot BTC and ETH ETFs saw roughly $592 million leave in one day. A lot of leveraged longs got run over.
What it means:
Crypto is not banned. The U.S. still has no law that sticks.
Agencies can keep writing memos. Banks can keep adding custody. The ETFs are already live. What you do not get is a statute a new administration cannot tear up.
That is why Coinbase and Circle sold off harder than bitcoin.
Today's Fed meeting matters more than the next Senate calendar. $75,000 has to hold without the policy bid people were counting on.
META Triangle Breakout
What’s going on:
$META ( ▲ 1.14% ) is breaking above its descending weekly trendline after months of consolidation, now trading around $680.
Key levels we’re watching:
Support: $660–$680
Resistance: $720
Target: $790
Invalidation: Back below $660
Directional Bias: Bullish
The breakout is promising, but META needs to hold above the trendline to confirm the move.
What we’re waiting for:
Hold $660–$680
Momentum above $720
Continuation toward $790
Circle Opens Its Own Highway
What’s going on:
Circle put Arc on public mainnet Wednesday. You pay gas in USDC. Blocks settle in under a second. It runs like Ethereum, so most existing apps can move over.
BlackRock, DTCC, ICE, Mastercard, and Visa are in the first validator set. Aave, Morpho, and Uniswap went live on day one. Circle says 100-plus apps shipped. It also minted 10 billion ARC tokens.
No public token sale is locked in.
What it means:
Circle is done renting blockspace for USDC. It now owns the rails.
That is a problem for generic Layer 1s that still charge gas in a token that moves 5% a day. The tradeoff is obvious.
A chain secured by the same firms that use it will look gated. Money can still leave through Circle's bridges, built for insistutions.
 | BTC: |
 | XRP: |
 | ARB: |
Does the U.S. still get a crypto rulebook this year? |
People wanted a law. Bitcoin is already treated like a commodity. The ETFs work. Banks are still lining up for custody.
What failed is the idea that Congress would lock the rules before November.
That is a problem if you hold altcoins or crypto stocks. Nobody knows how tokens get classified, who is liable in DeFi or how stablecoin rewards work.
The next SEC chair can change the answer with a speech.
Rates still run the tape.
A 10-year near 5% and a hike on the table leave no room for sloppy leverage. Weak hands got flushed around $75,000.
— The Warmup Team
Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.