SEC Opens a Crypto Custody Path

Welcome back to The Warmup.

Happy Friday and welcome to UPTOBER!

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• SEC Opens a Crypto Custody Path

• HYPE Long Setup

• Payrolls Miss, Hike Odds Slip

Market: Crypto leads, with SOL showing strong momentum. Equities remain steady.

SEC Opens a Crypto Custody Path

What’s going on:

The Securities and Exchange Commission on Thursday proposed a custody framework for investment advisers and regulated funds that hold crypto.

The proposal would let those firms self-custody certain crypto assets when no qualified custodian will take them, and it would let state-chartered trust companies serve as custodians, subject to conditions.

What it means:

Custody is the rule that says client assets have to sit with a permitted third party so an adviser cannot quietly move them. Crypto has sat in a gray zone because many tokens launch months before a bank or trust company will hold them.

The puts guardrails on self-custody: cybersecurity, an annual review, client statements, and a disclosure that the adviser is holding the assets itself.

Chair Paul Atkins framed it as another step after the Senate failed to pass the Clarity Act.

HYPE Long Setup

What’s going on:

HYPE is holding above the 20 EMA at $88.6 after reclaiming $90, keeping the uptrend intact.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Support: $88.5 → $82

• Resistance: $96 → $98

• Target: $100+

• Invalidation: Below $82

Directional Bias: Bullish

What we’re waiting for:

• Hold $88.5

• Break $96–98

• Continuation toward $100+

Payrolls Miss, Hike Odds Slip

What’s going on:

The U.S. added 29,000 jobs in September, well below the roughly 90,000 economists expected, and the unemployment rate edged up to 4.2% from 4.1%.

August was revised down to 133,000 from 162,000. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% on the month and 3.0% over the year.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics said employment changed little across major industries, with health care still the main source of gains.

What it means:

A soft print cools the case for another Federal Reserve hike in October, which is the macro backdrop crypto has been trading against all week after a softer PCE reading.

The market had already leaned toward a slower hiring pace, so a miss helps only if it changes the path of rates more than traders expected.

• SEC's innovation exemption poses constraint on bringing stock tokens to US, Robinhood crypto chief says

• ECB outlines three models for putting central bank money onchain

• Ethereum Foundation launches zkAPI to let users pay for AI models without revealing identity

September ended with $2.65B flowing into Bitcoin ETFs, while BTC pushed back above $86K. Jobs came in well below expectations and unemployment hit 4.2%, giving markets more room to price Fed cuts.

Citi also raised its BTC target to $113K.

The catch? Inflation is still sticky, yields remain high, and ETFs are seeing outflows. The short-term setup looks better, but crypto can still get hit if inflation comes in hot.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.