Saylor Is Selling Again

Welcome back to The Warmup.

Happy Monday! Please remember to take profits when you screenshot your portfolio.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Saylor Is Selling Again

• BTC 4H Resistance Play

• America Just Lost Jobs

• Calendar

Market: Crypto is selling off while equities remain mostly flat, with both the VIX and DXY ticking higher.

Saylor Is Selling Again

What’s going on:

Strategy sold 1,690 BTC for roughly $108.6 million between Aug. 3 and Aug. 9, at an average price of $64,262.

The proceeds didn't go anywhere exciting.

They funded buybacks of STRC preferred stock and topped up the company's USD reserve by $650 million, to $4.65 billion.

Holdings now sit at 840,447 BTC, bought at an average cost of $75,385, about $8.7 billion underwater at current prices.

What it means:

The largest corporate bitcoin buyer has quietly become a seller, and the market barely flinched.

Under its BTC Monetization Program, Strategy can offload up to $5 billion in bitcoin to service dividends, interest and securities repurchases.

That's a structural bid turning into a structural supply overhang, and MSTR is still down roughly 78% from its peak with an mNAV of 1.07.

Saylor drew the line himself last week: "Strategy is a public company, not my wallet."

The treasury-company trade isn't dead. But it's no longer a one-way bet.

BTC 4H Resistance Play

What’s going on:

BTC got rejected below the $65.5K resistance zone and is now sitting right on the 200 EMA near $64.2K.

This is a key spot. If bulls hold the EMA, price can try to rotate back higher. If not, downside opens up.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Support: $64.2K → 200 EMA / immediate pivot

• Major support: $62K

• Resistance: $65.5K

• Higher target: $66.8K if BTC reclaims resistance

Directional Bias: Neutral to cautiously bearish

As long as BTC stays below $65.5K, this still looks like a range with some downside risk. Bulls need to reclaim that level to shift momentum back up.

What we’re waiting for:

• Hold above the 200 EMA

• Reclaim of $65.5K

• Otherwise, watch for a move toward $62K

America Just Lost Jobs

What’s going on:

July payrolls came in at -23,000 against expectations of +80,000.

The first negative print since February.

Worse, the BLS revised May and June down by a combined 103,000 jobs, dragging the three-month average to roughly 20,000.

Wage growth slipped to 3.2% year-over-year, the softest since May 2021.

Markets repriced fast: odds of a September hike fell to around a third, with a hold now the base case.

What it means:

The Fed's hawkish path just got harder to defend, and risk assets noticed.

BTC pushed back above $65,000 on the print.

But this is a two-sided setup.

Wednesday's CPI is expected near 3.4% headline. A hot number puts the hike back on the table and squeezes the exact positioning that just built.

Weak labor plus sticky inflation is the worst combination for a Fed with a dual mandate. This week decides which one wins.

Key Events this Week

Major token unlocks:

• YZY (YZY): $35.2M unlock on Aug 16 (22.8% of released supply)

• Connex (CONX): $11.6M unlock on Aug 15 (1.4% of released supply)

• Arbitrum (ARB): $7.2M unlock on Aug 16 (1.6% of released supply)

Macroeconomic data calendar:

Mon (Aug 10):

• No major US releases → positioning day ahead of CPI.

Tue (Aug 11):

• RBA Rate Decision + Statement on Monetary Policy: Consensus is a hold at 4.35% → the forward guidance in the SMP matters more than the decision itself.

Wed (Aug 12):  

• July CPI Inflation Data (8:30am ET): Consensus 3.4% headline → the week's main event. Hot print revives September hike odds and pressures risk assets, soft print confirms the hold.

• US Crude Oil Inventory Data: Weekly energy report → rising inventories signal weaker demand, falling inventories suggest tighter supply.

Thu (Aug 13):  

• July PPI: Wholesale inflation → confirms or contradicts Wednesday's CPI on the input-cost side.

• Weekly Jobless Claims: Rising claims would reinforce Friday's labor-market damage.

Fri (Aug 14):

• July Retail Sales: The consumer check after a negative payrolls print → strength implies resilience, weakness implies the slowdown is spreading.

Major Earnings Releases:

• Mon (Aug 10): Bitdeer, Simon Property, Rocket Lab

• Tue (Aug 11): CoreWeave, Super Micro, Sea Limited, eToro

• Wed (Aug 12): Cisco, Nebius, BitGo, Coherent

• Thu (Aug 13): Applied Materials, JD.com, Bullish, Gemini Space Station

• Majority Leader Thune files cloture on Clarity Act, setting up Sept. 15 Senate vote

• Bitcoin, ether ETFs draw $1.1B in best inflow week since April, despite low volume

• Robinhood brings crypto trading to main UK app through Bitstamp

Bitcoin has spent four straight days above $65,000 while the loudest bull in the market sells into it. That contradiction is the whole story right now.

The leverage layer built in 2025 is being dismantled in public. Strategy is $8.7 billion underwater, the treasury-company cohort has watched its mNAV premiums evaporate, and 196 public companies are learning that a balance-sheet strategy is only as good as the balance sheet behind it.

That's painful, and it's necessary.

Underneath it, the plumbing kept getting built. ETFs pulled $1.1 billion last week, the best since April. Robinhood put 50+ assets into its UK app. The Senate scheduled a real vote on market structure for Sept. 15.

Price is set by the marginal seller. Adoption is set by everyone else. Those two things diverge for long stretches and the gap is usually where the opportunity sits.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.