Saylor Goes Five Sundays Without a Bitcoin Buy

Welcome back to The Warmup.

Happy Monday to all crypto degens!

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Saylor Goes Five Sundays Without a Bitcoin Buy

• BTC Weekly Setup

• The Fed Debate Just Flipped From Cuts to Hikes

• Calendar

Market: Mixed session as Ethereum outperforms, equities soften, and volatility ticks higher.

Saylor Goes Five Sundays Without a Bitcoin Buy

What’s going on:

Michael Saylor posted Strategy's bitcoin acquisition chart to X on Sunday with the caption "We're gonna need another color."

It's his fifth Sunday tease since the company last disclosed a purchase back on June 22.

The four Monday filings since then covered share sales, dollar reserve additions, and the largest bitcoin sale in Strategy's history.

Strategy holds 843,775 BTC at an average cost of $75,476, leaving the position roughly $9.3 billion underwater with bitcoin near $65,000.

What it means:

The market's most price-insensitive bid has gone quiet.

Strategy's June capital framework created new destinations for cash: a $1B stock buyback, $1B of credit repurchases, and a $1.25B bitcoin monetization program.

"Another color" could easily mean dollars, not orange dots. The company also redefined mNAV on July 23, so older valuation comparisons no longer hold.

Q2 results land Thursday after the close. That's when we find out whether the flywheel is resting or reversing.

BTC Weekly Setup

What’s going on:

BTC is holding above the 200 EMA after rejecting local highs. A breakout could resume the uptrend, while losing support opens the door for a deeper pullback.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Support: $64.3K → 200 EMA

• Resistance: $65.0K → breakout trigger

• Bullish target: $67.3K

• Breakdown risk: Below $64.3K could send BTC to the $61K–62K support zone

Directional Bias: Neutral to cautiously bullish

BTC is at a key decision point. Holding the 200 EMA favors bulls, but confirmation above $65K is needed.

What we’re waiting for:

• Break and hold above $65K

• Volume confirmation

• Strong reaction if price revisits $61K–62K

The Fed Debate Just Flipped From Cuts to Hikes

What’s going on:

The FOMC meets Tuesday and Wednesday, and almost nobody expects a move. September is the real trade.

Odds of higher rates by the September 16 meeting sit near 82%, up from roughly 52% two weeks ago.

Energy is the driver.

The US-Iran conflict pushed crude above $100 a barrel and fuel costs are rising at the fastest pace in three decades.

With forward guidance removed from the statement, Warsh's press conference is the only signal traders get.

What it means:

Crypto spent two years positioning for an easing cycle. That assumption is being unwound in real time.

The ceasefire held a second day, oil fell 5%, and risk bid back up. Bitcoin reclaimed $65,000 and ether jumped 4%.

That is a geopolitics bounce, not a liquidity bounce, and the two behave very differently when tested.

Watch crude, not the dot plot.

Under $100, the hike narrative fades quietly. Above it, risk assets have another leg to reprice.

Key Events this Week

Macroeconomic data calendar:

The busiest week of the quarter. Three central banks, GDP, PCE, and four of the Magnificent Seven.

Wed (Jul 29):

• FOMC rate decision (2:00pm ET): Markets expect a hold. Chair Kevin Warsh's 2:30pm press conference matters more, since forward guidance was stripped out of the statement in June.

Thu (Jul 30):

• Q2 GDP (8:30am ET): First read on growth with $100 oil in the system.

• June Core PCE (8:30am ET): The Fed's preferred inflation gauge. A hot print hardens the September hike case.

• Bank of England decision: Second of the week's three central banks.

Fri (Jul 31):

• Bank of Japan decision: Rate expected held at 1%. Watch the yen for carry-trade stress.

Major Earnings Releases:

• Wed (Jul 29): Microsoft, Meta, Robinhood

• Thu (Jul 30): Apple, Amazon, Strategy

• South Korea's KB Kookmin Bank to launch cross-border payment service on JPMorgan's Kinexys

• BitMart to wind down trading platform as global CEO says he was not consulted

• Triple-A hot wallet losses climb to $11.8M as new deposits keep being swept

This week handed us Storj in Chapter 11, BitMart winding down its exchange, Forma shutting its chain, and $11.8 million still leaking out of a hot wallet. Four failures in five days.

None of it is systemic. These are small, legacy businesses meeting a market that no longer subsidizes weak unit economics with cheap capital. Bear markets rarely kill good projects. They kill the ones that only worked when money was free, and 2018 and 2022 both looked exactly like this on the way through.

The uncomfortable part is that the cleanup usually runs longer than anyone budgets for. The useful part is what it leaves behind: fewer competitors, cheaper talent, and more share for whoever is still standing. Fear index in the red, the Fed back in play, and the strongest builders quietly compounding through it. We've seen this movie.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.