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Prediction Markets Are Exploding
PLUS: Ethereum Activity Just Hit a New ATH
Welcome back to The Warmup.
This is me seeing my neighbor who invested in gold get a new car while I hold Ethereum.
Here’s what we’re watching:
Market Snapshot
Ethereum Activity Just Hit a New All Time High
CRCL Pullback Play
Prediction Markets Are Exploding
Market: Crypto leads as ETH and SOL outperform, BTC grinds higher, while equities stay flat and volatility remains muted.
Ethereum Activity Just Hit a New All Time High
What’s going on:
Ethereum just quietly did something big.
Daily transactions hit a new all time high of 1.87M on Dec. 31, surpassing the peak from the 2021 NFT boom. Active addresses climbed to their highest level since 2021, and new addresses saw the biggest single day jump since 2018.
This isn’t hype driven usage. It’s coming from cheaper fees, better scalability, and real adoption.
Network upgrades like Pectra and Fusaka improved blob throughput, wallet usability, and data availability, making Ethereum cheaper and easier to use at scale.
Institutions are also showing up through ETFs and real world asset tokenization, adding steady demand rather than speculative spikes.
What it means:
Ethereum is seeing record usage while price has been relatively quiet.
That’s classic setup territory. When fundamentals improve and activity accelerates before price reacts, it usually catches people off guard.
The network is doing more than it ever has.
CRCL Pullback Play
What’s going on:
Circle IPO’d at $31, opened near $69, then ripped to almost $300 in under 3 weeks. Since then, it fully mean-reverted, bottoming around $65 in November. It’s now consolidating near $80.
Key levels we’re watching:
Support: $65–$70
Resistance: $100
Upside: $120+ if momentum returns
Invalidation: Sustained break below $65
Prediction Markets Are Exploding
What’s going on:
Prediction markets exploded in 2025.
Two platforms, Kalshi and Polymarket, processed tens of billions in volume this year, with monthly activity peaking above $10B. What started as an election trade turned into a new way to price reality.
Sports, macro events, and politics are now actively traded information. Kalshi’s regulatory win with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission unlocked U.S. growth, while Polymarket scaled distribution and cultural relevance.
At the same time, challengers are moving fast.
Crypto.com, Gemini, and DraftKings all launched or announced prediction market products, shifting the battle from regulation to distribution.
What it means:
Prediction markets are becoming core infrastructure, not a niche product.
The edge going forward is trust, transparency, and reach. Platforms that become the default signal for truth will win attention, liquidity, and influence.
2025 showed product market fit. 2026 decides who owns the signal layer of the internet.
 | SOL: |
 | MSTR: |
 | JUP: |
 | PEPE: |
Which one do you think wins long term? |
What matters most heading into 2026 isn’t price, it’s structure.
Liquidity is slowly turning, regulation is becoming a tailwind instead of a threat, and institutions are no longer asking if but how to deploy.
That combination doesn’t create fireworks overnight, but it builds the foundation for the next sustained expansion.
The trade isn’t chasing narratives, it’s staying positioned before the market realizes the regime has already changed.
— The Warmup Team
Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.