OpenSea’s Token Is Coming...

Welcome back to The Warmup.

It’s Monday, and everyone’s more excited for Trump’s next deadline than boomers rushing to buy gold during a Fed speech.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• OpenSea’s SEA Token Is Finally Coming

• Ethereum Decision Zone

• Stripe-Backed Tempo Raises $500M at $5B Valuation

• Calendar

Market: Risk-on vibes return as Bitcoin breaks above $111K and ETH climbs past $4K. Stocks and gold are up while the VIX drops as liquidity flows back in.

OpenSea’s SEA Token Is Finally Coming

What’s going on:

OpenSea just announced its long-awaited SEA token, set to launch in Q1 2026.

Here’s the big news:

• 50% of SEA’s total supply will go to OG users and rewards program participants.

• 50% of OpenSea’s platform revenue will be used for token buybacks at launch.

The token will be introduced as part of OpenSea’s reinvention, it’s no longer just an NFT marketplace. The company is pivoting into a multi-chain crypto trading hub, with plans to support perpetual futures trading and launch a mobile app ahead of the token generation event.

Recent momentum backs the move: OpenSea just had its biggest volume month in three years ($1.6B in crypto trades and $230M in NFTs) while holding around two-thirds of Ethereum’s NFT market share.

What it means:

The SEA token could mark a new chapter for OpenSea. Buybacks funded by platform revenue suggest a strong value-capture model for token holders.

And the broader vision is clear: OpenSea wants to be the destination for the entire onchain economy: where users can trade tokens, NFTs, culture, and even perps all in one place.

Ethereum Decision Zone

What’s going on:

Ethereum just pulled back into a key confluence zone where multiple supports meet. Price is testing the weekly 20 EMA (blue), the horizontal level around $3,794, and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level.

This area will decide whether ETH resumes its uptrend or heads for a deeper correction toward the 0.618 Fib.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Support: $3,794–$3,613 → Major confluence zone with EMA + Fib support

• Resistance: $4,748.5 → Recent swing high

• Breakout target: $4,957.5 → Retest of yearly highs if momentum returns

• Breakdown risk: Below $3,444 → Opens path to $2,777

Directional Bias: Neutral to cautiously bullish

What we’re waiting for:

• Confirmation of support holding around $3.6K–$3.8K

• Strong daily close above $3,900

• Momentum follow-through from Bitcoin

ETH’s reaction here could set the tone for the next few weeks. Hold this zone and it could be the launchpad for another leg higher.

Stripe-Backed Tempo Raises $500M at $5B Valuation

What’s going on:

Tempo, a payments-focused blockchain incubated by Stripe and Paradigm, has raised $500M in a Series A round at a $5B valuation.

The round was led by Thrive Capital and Greenoaks, with participation from Sequoia Capital, Ribbit Capital, and SV Angel. Stripe and Paradigm did not join this round but remain key backers behind the project.

Tempo is an Ethereum-compatible Layer 1 focused on high-speed payments and settlements. The network is already working with OpenAI, Shopify, Visa, Anthropic, and Deutsche Bank, giving it a strong lineup of real-world partners.

Stripe CEO Patrick Collison has called it “the payments-oriented L1 optimized for real-world financial services,” while Paradigm co-founder Matt Huang is helping lead the initiative.

Ethereum Foundation researcher Dankrad Feist also joined the project as a senior engineer, saying Tempo shares Ethereum’s permissionless ideals and is built for the next era of onchain finance.

What it means:

The raise positions Tempo as one of the most valuable new players in the stablecoin and payments infrastructure race.

For Stripe, it marks a major step deeper into crypto. The $92B fintech has been expanding through acquisitions like Bridge and Privy, and recently integrated Coinbase’s Base L2 network into its payments stack.

Key Events this Week

Major token unlocks:

• Scroll (SCR): ~$14M unlock on Oct 22 (~43% of supply)

• Plasma (XPL): ~$37M unlock on Oct 25 (~5% of supply)

Macroeconomic data calendar:

Data remains limited amid the government shutdown.

Earnings Season Continues (~10% of S&P 500): Around 50 major companies report this week → key insights into corporate profits and guidance for Q4 growth.

Wed (Oct 22):

• US Crude Oil Inventory Data: Weekly energy report → rising inventories can signal weaker demand, falling inventories suggest tighter supply.

Thu (Oct 23):

• September Existing Home Sales: Tracks sales of pre-owned homes → higher sales show housing market strength; falling sales may indicate cooling demand.

Fri (Oct 24):

• September CPI Inflation Data: Core measure of price growth → critical for gauging Fed policy direction. Higher CPI = higher inflation pressures.

• October Services PMI: Survey of service-sector activity → positive reading (>50) shows expansion, negative (<50) signals slowdown.

• October Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Measures household confidence → stronger sentiment implies resilient consumer spending and economic optimism.

Major Earnings Releases:

• Tue (Oct 21): GM, Coca Cola, Netflix

• Wed (Oct 22): Tesla, IBM

• Thu (Oct 23): Intel, Ford, American Airlines

• Beijing moves to stop Chinese tech giants from issuing stablecoins in Hong Kong

• Jupiter unveils Ultra v3

• Some of Asia's largest Ethereum backers plan to launch $1B ETH treasury firm

Unless the Fed restarts QE, asset prices could face serious pressure as liquidity continues to fall.

In short, the Fed’s liquidity well is drying up and Powell’s talk of ending QT will not be enough to save risk assets.

Repo markets are flashing warning signs, trade fails are rising, and liquidity stress is spreading fast.

Bottom line, the next big market move might not be about rates but about who runs out of cash first.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.