Oil Shock Sends Bitcoin Back Into Its Range

Welcome back to The Warmup.

Happy Monday! This is me, 50x leveraged on oil markets in the middle of a war.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Oil Shock Sends Bitcoin Back Into Its Range

• ETH Range Reclaim Setup

• Vitalik Says Ethereum Hasn’t Actually Helped People (Yet)

• Calendar

Market: Crypto is pushing higher led by ETH and SOL, while equities are pulling back and volatility (VIX) is rising suggesting risk is rotating toward crypto as traditional markets cool.

Oil Shock Sends Bitcoin Back Into Its Range

What’s going on:

Crypto markets saw fresh volatility over the weekend as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East escalated.

Oil surged above $115 per barrel as traders priced in potential disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route that carries roughly 20% of global oil supply.

Risk assets quickly reacted.

Bitcoin dropped to $65.6K during Sunday night trading before rebounding to around $67.5K this morning as oil cooled back toward the $100 level.

Even with the bounce, BTC is now back inside its familiar $60K–$70K range after last week’s failed breakout attempt to $74K.

What it means:

The move highlights something interesting: macro shocks, especially in energy markets, are increasingly spilling over into crypto price action.

Crypto is behaving more like a global macro asset.

When oil spikes and geopolitical risk rises, markets move into risk-off mode, which tends to pressure both equities and crypto.

But the quick rebound also shows underlying demand remains strong around the mid-$60K area.

For now, Bitcoin remains range-bound between $60K and $70K. A clean break above that zone is still needed to restart the next leg higher.

ETH Range Reclaim Setup

What’s going on:

ETH is consolidating around the $2,000 level while respecting a rising uptrend support near $1,900.

Price recently rejected the 4h EMA200 (blue) around $2,110, which is acting as the main short-term resistance.

The chart suggests a range continuation along the trendline before a potential breakout attempt.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Support: $1,900 → rising trendline support holding the structure

• Resistance: $2,110 → 4h EMA200 and key momentum barrier

• Breakout target: $2,250+ if price reclaims the EMA200

• Breakdown risk: Loss of $1,880 would invalidate the trend

Directional Bias: Cautiously bullish

What we’re waiting for:

• Higher lows along the trendline

• A strong reclaim of the $2.1k EMA200

• Volume expansion on the breakout

Vitalik Says Ethereum Hasn’t Actually Helped People (Yet)

What’s going on:

Vitalik Buterin recently asked a blunt question: Why hasn’t Ethereum actually improved anyone’s life?

He argues the technologies truly empowering people today aren’t crypto, but tools like Signal, Starlink, Community Notes, and local open-weight AI models.

Ethereum has built powerful financial infrastructure, but financial freedom alone doesn’t solve many real-world problems.

Vitalik’s proposed direction: “sanctuary technologies.”

What it means:

Sanctuary technologies are open tools that let people communicate, work, and build wealth without centralized control.

Vitalik says Ethereum should focus less on competing with big tech and more on helping people who truly need censorship-resistant systems like journalists, activists, and people in unstable regimes.

In short: Ethereum may need to refocus on real-world impact.

Key Events this Week

Major token unlocks:

• Aptos (APT): ~$10M unlock on Mar 12 (~0.7% of supply)

Tue (Mar 10):

• February Existing Home Sales: Tracks the pace of previously owned home sales → stronger numbers signal housing resilience, while weaker data may indicate cooling demand.

Wed (Mar 11):

• February CPI Inflation Data: One of the most important inflation indicators → hotter CPI could pressure markets and shift expectations for interest rate policy.

Fri (Mar 13):

• US Q4 2025 GDP Data: Final estimate of economic growth → stronger GDP confirms economic resilience; weaker data may raise slowdown concerns.

• January PCE Inflation Data: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge → closely watched for underlying inflation trends.

• January JOLTS Job Openings: Measures labor market demand → higher openings suggest a tight labor market, while declines may signal cooling employment conditions.

Major Earnings Releases:

• Tue (Mar 10): Oracle

• First spot Polkadot ETF launches in US issued by 21Shares

• First US state-level stablecoin bill passes in Florida

• Kalshi and Polymarket each exploring fundraising at $20B valuations

Crypto adoption is still growing globally, especially through stablecoins and Bitcoin use in countries with weak currencies, which supports the long-term bullish thesis.

However, the market has matured, and many altcoins and speculative projects have failed to deliver real value, leading to investor fatigue and a shift toward fewer high-quality assets.

The most durable areas of crypto are likely to be Bitcoin as a monetary asset, decentralized trading infrastructure, and the global adoption of stablecoins for payments and transfers.

Successful traders focus on understanding specific protocols deeply and staying prepared to exploit market inefficiencies when opportunities appear.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.