Nasdaq Writes a $100M Check to Kraken

Welcome back to The Warmup.

Inflation is heating up, and the Fed’s next move just got a lot harder to predict.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Nasdaq Writes a $100M Check to Kraken

• NVDA Double Top Play

• Hot Inflation Data Knocks Bitcoin Under $77,000

Market: Crypto is showing strength, while equities pull back and gold pushes higher.

Nasdaq Writes a $100M Check to Kraken

What’s going on:

Nasdaq is putting $100 million into Payward, the company that owns Kraken, at a $21 billion valuation.

Payward will use Nasdaq's market-surveillance tools across crypto, futures, options, and tokenized stocks. The two firms also want Nasdaq Equity Tokens live in the second quarter of 2027.

Wall Street is buying a seat next to the exchange that already tokenizes equities.

What it means:

Tokenized stocks stop being a crypto side experiment when the operator of the U.S. stock market writes the check.

A $100 million check makes it easier for regulated money to settle shares onchain later.

Still, products like this usually launch late and under tighter rules than the pitch deck implies.

NVDA Double Top Play

What’s going on:

NVDA remains below its $236.54 ATH, with another rejection near $230–$235. The double-top setup is still intact.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Resistance: $236.54

• Support: $215

• Target: $205–$210

• Invalidation: Break above $236.54

Directional Bias: Bearish

Another rejection could open the door to a move toward $205–$210.

What we’re waiting for:

• Rejection below $236

• Break below $215

• Volume confirmation

Hot Inflation Data Knocks Bitcoin Under $77,000

What’s going on:

August U.S. producer prices printed 5.4% year over year, a touch hotter than expected. Markets now price roughly a +70% chance the Fed hikes rates on September 16.

Bitcoin slipped under $77,000. Spot bitcoin ETFs saw about $283 million in outflows on September 10, a third straight day of withdrawals. Ethereum ETFs leaked another $30 million.

Oil near $107 and a 10-year Treasury yield close to 5% added pressure.

What it means:

Crypto still trades like a risk asset when inflation surprises.

If money gets more expensive, leveraged longs get flushed first. That is why $129 million was liquidated in an hour this week, almost all of it on the long side.

The honest risk for new investors: a hot CPI print today can push the same trade further.

The offset is that ETF outflows are a flow. They reverse when the data cools.

• Bitwise shuts down Dogecoin ETF less than a year after launch

• ESMA says major prediction platforms lack EU authorization, questions Polymarket and Kalshi's partial geo-blocks

• Senate Republicans unveil revised crypto bill ahead of key Clarity Act vote next week

Inflation data still sets the short-term weather. A hot inflation print, oil above $100, and a +70% hike odds number are enough to knock bitcoin under $77,000 and pull $283 million out of spot ETFs in a day.

The same week Nasdaq put $100 million into Kraken's parent and locked a 2027 path for tokenized U.S. equities. Germany is moving to tax long-term crypto gains like stocks.

Bitwise is shutting a Dogecoin ETF that never found buyers.

Prices rarely reward the structure in a straight line. They reward people who can sit through a four-session slide without confusing it for the end of the experiment.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.