Morgan Stanley Undercuts Everyone on ETH and SOL

Welcome back to The Warmup.

Before calling Michael Burry a genius for shorting $MU ( ▼ 4.94% ) and $NVDA ( ▼ 2.39% ) after a few red days, here’s something worth considering:

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Morgan Stanley Undercuts Everyone on ETH and SOL

• BTC 4H EMA200 Retest

• The Fed Decides Today, and Crypto Is Holding Its Breath

Market: Add commentary here on market snapshot (e.g. SOL is continuing it’s upward strength)

Morgan Stanley Undercuts Everyone on ETH and SOL

What’s going on:

Morgan Stanley just launched spot Ethereum and Solana ETFs, and priced both at the lowest fee in the market.

Both funds also pass through staking rewards, so holders get yield on top of price exposure, something the first wave of US crypto ETFs couldn't offer.

A bank that spent years keeping crypto at arm's length is now competing on price against issuers who got here first.

What it means:

The ETF fight has moved from "who can list" to "who can charge the least."

Fee compression is great for investors and brutal for issuers, the same thing happened in equity ETFs, and the low-cost players ended up owning the flows.

Staking yield becomes the new differentiator, and every competitor now has to answer it or lose assets.

The distribution war for crypto exposure is being fought in basis points now, not headlines.

BTC 4H EMA200 Retest

What’s going on:

BTC is trading right around the 4H EMA200 at $64.25K. Price is slightly below it, so this is still a key decision zone.

Key levels we’re watching:

• EMA200 / reclaim level: $64.25K

• Support: $63K

• Lower support: $61K

Directional Bias: Cautiously bearish

BTC needs to reclaim and hold above the 4H EMA200 for longs to look stronger. If not, price could rotate lower into support.

What we’re waiting for:

• A clean reclaim above $64.25K

• Or a pullback into $63K–$61K for better long entries

BTC is still stuck around the EMA200. Reclaim it, and bulls regain control. Lose it, and lower supports come into play.

The Fed Decides Today, and Crypto Is Holding Its Breath

What’s going on:

The FOMC releases its rate decision at 2:00 PM ET, with the target range sitting at 3.50%–3.75%.

Rates haven't moved since the December 2025 cut, and nobody is betting on relief today, prediction markets show roughly zero odds of a cut and about one in four pricing a 25bp hike.

US inflation is running at 4.2%, and nine of 18 Fed officials expect at least one hike before year-end.

What it means:

Crypto is trading like a rates asset again, not a hedge.

Bitcoin sits near $64,200 and ether near $1,905, both bouncing modestly after a soft week, with the Fear & Greed Index stuck at 29.

A hawkish tone today pressures the long end of the risk curve first and altcoins are the long end.

The move that matters isn't the decision, it's the language after it.

• Crypto hacks hit record high in H1 2026 as losses top $1 billion

• Michael Saylor teases 'another color' after four straight weeks without a Strategy bitcoin buy

• Robinhood Chain deposits climb but volume and users fade after memecoin-fueled launch

Prices are down and usage is up. Bitwise data shows Ethereum, Solana and Avalanche all getting busier and cheaper this year, even as their tokens bleed. Layer-2 TVL just hit a two-year low while transaction counts climb. Both things are true at once.

Markets don't pay you for being early to that gap. Bitcoin ETFs have shed roughly $5.3 billion net in 2026, half of all BTC supply is underwater, and sentiment has been parked in fear for weeks. That's not a temporary mood, it's what a full repricing cycle actually feels like from the inside.

But the infrastructure being built through this stretch doesn't care what the Fed says at 2:00 PM. Morgan Stanley is undercutting the ETF market. Circle is running a federally supervised trust bank. The rails keep getting laid while nobody's watching. That's usually the part that matters later.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.