Moonvember? More Like Doomvember

Welcome back to The Warmup.

It’s Wednesday, and the market’s panicking harder than traders who just discovered their stop-loss didn’t trigger. Let’s figure out what’s got everyone sweating.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Bitcoin Breaks $100K, Opportunity or Trap?

• Bitcoin Accumulation Zone

• Why Crypto’s Taking a Hit This Week

Market: Bitcoin’s holding near $102K after dipping below $100K, while ETH leads losses. Gold’s strength hints at caution, but buyers are still defending key crypto levels.

Bitcoin Breaks $100K, Opportunity or Trap?

What’s going on:

Bitcoin fell below $100,000 for the first time since May, sliding around 6% and triggering more than $2B in liquidations.

The dip dragged ETH and SOL down 10–15%, while smaller alts and memecoins got hit even harder, dropping up to 60% this month.

Still, there’s a flicker of strength. BTC has bounced back to $102K, ETH’s above $3,350, and SOL’s nearing $160, with sentiment slowly recovering from Extreme Fear.

What it means:

Pullbacks like this are part of every bull market, not the end of one. They shake out leverage, cool overheated sentiment, and offer chances to accumulate quality assets at better prices.

The bigger picture hasn’t changed: ETF inflows are steady, institutional adoption is growing, and U.S. crypto regulation is finally turning constructive.

With the government shutdown close to ending, liquidity could soon return and when it does, crypto tends to move first.

So no, it’s not all lost. For the patient, this might be the dip worth remembering.

Bitcoin Accumulation Zone

What’s going on:

Bitcoin is now sitting right on the EMA50 on the weekly chart, a level historically known as the main bull market support.

We’ve been tracking this area for weeks, it’s where whales typically step in to accumulate, even as retail investors panic sell.

That dynamic seems to be playing out again: retail is exiting, whales are quietly stacking.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Support: $98K–$100K → historically strong accumulation zone

• Resistance: $108K → next key breakout area

• Breakdown risk: Close below $95K could invalidate the setup

Directional Bias: Cautiously bullish

Momentum is cooling, but as long as BTC holds the EMA50, the structure remains intact. Accumulation patterns suggest whales are positioning for the next leg higher.

What we’re waiting for:

• Continued whale inflows and spot accumulation signals

• Confirmation bounce from the EMA50

• Increasing onchain activity showing long-term holders stepping in

Why Crypto’s Taking a Hit This Week

What’s going on:

Crypto’s off to a rough start this week. Bitcoin’s slipping, alts are bleeding, and fear’s creeping back in.

While there might be some deeper issues under the hood, the current sell-off lines up with a familiar trio:

• Uncertainty: The Fed hinted it might pause rate cuts. Powell said another cut in December is “far from a foregone conclusion.” That pushed the dollar higher and risk assets (like crypto) lower.

• Doubt: Institutions started de-risking. Since Oct 29, over $1.3B has left BTC ETFs and $500M from ETH ETFs.

• Fear: A $128M exploit hit Balancer, one of DeFi’s more trusted protocols, shaking confidence just as TradFi eyes blockchain adoption.

What it means:

This isn’t the end of the world, it’s a short-term reset driven by macro jitters and shaken confidence.

The total crypto market cap has dropped nearly 10% since the Fed meeting, but fear often sets up the next rally.

If liquidity conditions ease and sentiment stabilizes, this could turn into another great entry window for long-term investors.

• Canaan raises $72M from top investors including Brevan Howard and Galaxy Digital

• Gemini preparing to launch prediction market contracts

• Perp DEX volumes hit record $1.2T in October

Bitcoin is entering its IPO phase as early holders take profits and institutions start buying in.

Prices might seem stuck for now, but that’s usually what happens before the next big move.

Volatility is falling, adoption is rising, and the risk of owning Bitcoin is dropping fast.

This is the time to start building your position while it’s still quiet.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.