Kraken’s Bet on Aave’s Gap

Welcome back to The Warmup.

Happy Friday! Bitcoin picked a weird way to celebrate.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Kraken’s Bet on Aave’s Gap

• AMD Rising Wedge Setup

• Multicoin Says HYPE Is Still Undervalued

Market: Solana continues to lead crypto higher, while stocks trade slightly lower and rising volatility signals a cautious risk environment.

Kraken’s Bet on Aave’s Gap

What’s going on:

Kraken is reportedly buying a 15% stake in Aave Group at a $385 million valuation, receiving both equity and 250,000 AAVE tokens as part of the deal.

The move comes as Aave recovers from April’s KelpDAO-driven withdrawals and as Standard Chartered turns bullish on AAVE, arguing tokenization and onchain credit could drive massive growth in DeFi lending.

In the same week, a major exchange bought into the company while a major bank backed the token.

What it means:

The interesting part is the valuation gap.

Aave Group is valued at $385 million, while the AAVE token trades at roughly a $1.24 billion market cap, more than 3x higher.

In traditional finance, most value sits in the equity. In crypto, much of Aave’s economics flow to the token through the DAO treasury and buybacks.

Kraken avoided the debate by buying both.

But for investors, the question remains: is AAVE pricing in the future, or simply trading richer than the business underneath it?

AMD Rising Wedge Setup

What’s going on:

AMD remains stuck inside a rising wedge after failing to break to new highs. Price is now testing the lower trendline, making this a key moment for the next move.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Support: $500 → must hold to keep the uptrend intact

• Resistance: $550–575 → upper wedge and ATH zone

• Breakout target: $600+ on a clean move higher

• Breakdown risk: A close below $500 could trigger a deeper pullback

Directional Bias: Neutral to bearish

The trend is still up, but rising wedges often resolve lower. Bulls need to defend support soon, or momentum could start rolling over.

Multicoin Says HYPE Is Still Undervalued

What’s going on:

Multicoin Capital says HYPE could hit $319 by 2028, implying more than 400% upside.

Their thesis: the market still values Hyperliquid like a fast-growing perps exchange, but it is becoming an “everything exchange.”

By 2028, Multicoin expects Hyperliquid to generate around $8 billion in annual earnings. At a 20x multiple, that gets them to the $319 target.

The growth is real: users nearly tripled in 2025, open interest jumped from $2 billion to $6 billion, and volume hit $2.9 trillion.

What it means:

HYPE is no longer just a perps bet.

The upside case is that Hyperliquid becomes crypto’s version of CME or Robinhood, with perps, tokenized assets, buybacks, and new markets.

Multicoin is betting big on that future.

The risk is that HYPE already trades like a major exchange, so the “everything exchange” story needs to become reality.

The obvious AI trades may already be crowded

The next winners could be hiding deeper in the stack.

While everyone chases the model makers, a trillion-dollar wave of spending is flowing into power, chips, networking, and data center infrastructure.

We show you where the money is going, what's constraining the industry, and how to position for the next phase of the AI buildout.

• Framework Ventures raises $400M for fourth fund

• Base delays Beryl hard fork over B20 registry timing issue

• Ethereum OG wallets finally sell after 8 years

Crypto isn't broken, capital is simply chasing a better story right now.

AI infrastructure continues to absorb attention and money, while Bitcoin struggles with uncertainty around Saylor and broader market sentiment.

That likely creates opportunities for long-term buyers, but the cleaner trade may be owning businesses like Galaxy, Coinbase, and Robinhood, which combine crypto exposure with real revenues and growing AI tailwinds.

Longer term, the biggest opportunity could be where both worlds meet: using DeFi's superior financial rails to help fund the massive compute buildout powering the AI revolution.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.