Is the Halving Dead?

Welcome back to The Warmup.

Another week down, another lesson up: BNB memecoins are testing your Chinese skills.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Forget the 4-Year Cycle

• BTC Spot Setup

• BNB Memecoins Crash After CZ’s Clarification

Market: Crypto is steady with Solana leading gains, while the S&P 500 edges higher on steady risk-on sentiment.

Forget the 4-Year Cycle

What’s going on:

Arthur Hayes just dropped his latest blog, “Long Live the King” and his take is blunt: the 4-year Bitcoin halving cycle doesn’t matter anymore.

Instead, he argues every major bull and bear phase has lined up with liquidity cycles. Not the halving.

• 2014, 2018, and 2022 drawdowns all came during monetary tightening.

• The bull runs matched periods of easier liquidity.

• Looking forward, he sees spot ETF inflows and easier policy as the real drivers.

Translation: shallower pullbacks, but no more predictable, time-boxed bear markets.

What it means:

Hayes thinks the market is shifting to a new regime where global liquidity and policy moves dictate direction.

He highlights:

• Trump pushing to run the economy hot

• Unlocking trillions in housing equity

• Deregulated banks lending more

• Lower rates + higher money supply

That’s the perfect backdrop for Bitcoin to keep running.

If he’s right, the old playbook of waiting for the halving cycle is gone. The new one? Watch liquidity, not the clock.

Great time to zoom out and think in liquidity cycles, not in 4-year boxes.

BTC Spot Setup

What’s going on:

The setup is the same play we’ve taken before accumulation inside a defined range with DCA opportunities.

The plan is simple: scale into the trade across key levels and ride momentum back toward highs.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Entry Zone: $113K – $121K

• DCA Levels:

  • 25% at $121K

  • 25% at $118K

  • 25% at $116K

  • 25% at $113K

• Targets: 

  • $123K

  • $124K

  • $127K

• Stoo Loss: $111K

Directional Bias: Cautiously bullish

What we’re waiting for:

• Price stability above $118K → confirms strong support.

• Momentum push toward the $123K–$124K resistance zone.

• Break and hold above $124K → opens path to $127K.

Same setup, same logic: keep stacking entries in the range, manage risk tight at $111K, and let the market do the heavy lifting.

BNB Memecoins Crash After CZ’s Clarification

What’s going on:

BNB-based memecoins tanked 60% to 95% within hours after Binance founder CZ clarified his tweets aren’t endorsements or signals.

Over 100,000 traders had piled into tokens tied to his posts, fueling a frenzy across PancakeSwap and other DEXs.

CZ’s follow-up post made it clear: meme overlap is coincidence, not promotion. Panic selling followed, draining liquidity and crashing prices.

He later noted the selloff was also pushed by “false news” about Binance Alpha declining listings, adding: “People give me too much credit. I didn’t do anything.”

What it means:

Speculation tied to personalities is fragile.

CZ’s denial showed just how quickly sentiment can flip when hype isn’t backed by fundamentals.

• Kraken expands access to traditional CME contracts like oil and gold

• JPMorgan says Solana ETFs could see low inflows of around $1.5B in first year

• Morgan Stanley to open crypto access to all client accounts

October has delivered strong momentum, and history suggests Q4 often extends that trend.

Bitcoin is setting the pace, but the real opportunity may come from quality tokens still well below their highs.

Instead of chasing headlines, focus on assets with fundamentals that can carry them beyond last cycle’s inflated benchmarks.

Stay positioned, stay selective, and let the broader uptrend do the heavy lifting.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.