Is Stimmy Season Back?

Welcome back to The Warmup.

It’s Monday, Trump’s talking about $2,000 “tariff divided” checks, and markets are already acting like Oprah’s back on TV handing out cash.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Crypto Pops as “Stimmy Season” Rumors Return

• ETH Support Bounce Play

• Crypto Fuels Robinhood’s Record Quarter

• Calendar

Market: Crypto is ripping with SOL up 4.8% and both BTC and ETH gaining over 2%. Stocks are flat, gold is climbing, and sentiment is turning risk-on after stimulus chatter.

Crypto Pops as “Stimmy Season” Rumors Return

What’s going on:

Crypto caught fire over the weekend as Washington hinted at a double shot of good news.

• The government may finally reopen

• Trump floated $2,000 “tariff dividend” checks to offset trade costs.

Bitcoin surged 6% to $107K, ETH pushed back above $3,600, and SOL ripped 10% as traders rushed to front-run the return of liquidity.

Equities and metals joined the move higher, helped by reports that Congress reached a deal to fund the government through early 2026.

Add in the possibility of direct payments, and markets basically heard one thing: free money’s back on the menu.

What it means:

With shutdown fears fading and stimulus chatter heating up, crypto just got a serious confidence boost.

Bitcoin’s reclaim keeps the bull structure intact and (for now) the weekly chart looks saved.

Between a reopening government, potential tariff checks, and an easing cycle expected in 2026, the setup is starting to tilt risk-on again.

Four-year cycle bears? They’re running out of excuses.

ETH Support Bounce Play

What’s going on:

The 4H chart shows strength returning, with higher lows forming and buyers defending the range.

Price is now approaching short-term resistance, but holding above support keeps the bullish structure intact.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Support: $3,400 → strong demand zone and previous reaction level

• Resistance: $3,800 → first hurdle before testing $3,900

• Breakout target: $4,000+ if momentum sustains

• Breakdown risk: Below $3,000 invalidates the setup

Directional Bias: Bullish

ETH is attempting to reclaim momentum after a sharp correction, and if BTC holds above $100K, ETH could lead the next leg higher toward the $3.9K–$4K region.

What we’re waiting for:

• Spot accumulation within the $3K–$3.4K zone

• Confirmation of higher lows on the 4H chart

• Clean breakout above $3,600 for continuation

Crypto Fuels Robinhood’s Record Quarter

What’s going on:

Robinhood posted a blowout Q3, and crypto was the star of the show.

Revenue came in at $742M, beating estimates by about $38M. Out of that, $324M came from crypto. Up 150% year-over-year and now one of the company’s biggest profit engines.

Active users jumped to 19M, helped by crypto referrals and staking rewards. Even more impressive: expenses stayed nearly flat, meaning margins expanded while the business scaled.

CEO Vlad Tenev credited “relentless product velocity,” highlighting new growth areas like prediction markets, Robinhood Banking, and Robinhood Ventures.

Looking ahead, crypto revenue for Q4 is projected to climb another 5–15%, reaching between $340M and $370M.

What it means:

Robinhood isn’t just a stock app anymore, it’s morphing into a one-stop marketplace where users can trade anything.

Crypto is now a cornerstone of its business, proving that mainstream finance and digital assets are converging faster than expected.

As more platforms blur the lines between TradFi and DeFi, Robinhood’s early lead could make it the template for the next generation of trading platforms.

Key Events this Week

Major token unlocks:

• Aptos (APT): ~$36M unlock on Nov 11 (~0.4% of supply)

• Avalanche (AVAX): ~$30M unlock on Nov 13 (~0.33% of supply)

Macroeconomic data calendar:

Data remains limited amid the government shutdown.

Mon (Nov 10):

• $2,000 Tariff Dividend Reaction: Markets adjust to new tariff policies

• U.S. Government Shutdown – Day 41: Fiscal paralysis continues → limited data releases and slower economic activity readings expected.

Tue (Nov 11):

• NFIB Small Business Index: Tracks confidence among small firms → a key gauge of hiring, investment plans, and inflation sentiment in the real economy.

Wed (Nov 12):

• OPEC Monthly Report: Outlook on oil supply and demand → crucial for energy prices and inflation expectations ahead of winter.

Thu (Nov 13):

• U.S. Federal Budget Balance: Tracks federal receipts and spending → deficits can pressure Treasury issuance and influence liquidity conditions.

Major Earnings Releases:

• Wed (Nov 12): Circle

• Ledger considering New York IPO

• JPMorgan’s IBIT exposure jumps 64% as Ethereum allocation shrinks to pocket change

• Ethereum validator queue grows with 1.5M ETH waiting to start staking

Trump just announced $2,000 stimulus checks for every American, that’s over $400B about to hit the economy.

It’s great news for spending and short-term growth.

But more money chasing the same goods usually means higher prices.

With stimulus and rate cuts happening together, inflation could come roaring back fast.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.