Inflation Just Came In Hot

Welcome back to The Warmup.

Happy Wednesday to all Royal Oak owners looking at people with Swatch Audemars Piguets

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Inflation Just Came In Hot

• BTC Breakout Watch

• Hyperliquid Gets Its First ETF

Market: Crypto is pulling back, while stocks are holding up, showing risk appetite hasn’t fully returned to digital assets yet.

Inflation Just Came In Hot

What’s going on:

April CPI came in hotter than expected.

Headline inflation rose 0.6% for the month, pushing the annual rate to 3.8%, its highest level since May 2023.

Core CPI also came in above expectations, while real wages fell. That means workers may be earning more in dollar terms, but inflation is still eating into their purchasing power.

The big driver? Energy.

Oil-related costs are surging, with energy prices up 17.9% year over year, gasoline up 28.4%, and fuel oil up 54.3%.

That’s exactly the kind of setup markets hate: sticky inflation, weaker real income, and a Fed with less room to cut rates.

What it means:

Rate cuts are looking less likely.

In fact, odds of a rate hike in 2026 jumped to 30%, up from just 1% a month ago.

Markets initially sold off, but stocks still closed green and Bitcoin bounced back above $80K.

That tells us investors are nervous, but not panicking yet.

The big question now: can markets keep shrugging off hot inflation, or is this the start of a much tougher macro setup?

BTC Support Retest Setup

What’s going on:

Bitcoin is pulling back after rejection near $82K and may retest support zones below before the next move higher.

The structure still looks bullish for now, with higher lows intact and the 4H EMA200 trending upward.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Support: $79.5K

• Major support: $77K–$78K

• Resistance: $82K–$83K

• Breakout target: $84K+

• Breakdown risk: Lose $77K and momentum weakens

Directional Bias: Cautiously bullish

This still looks like a healthy cooldown, not a full trend reversal.

What we’re waiting for:

• Spot buying near support

• Strong bounce reactions

• Volume on any reclaim of $82K

Hyperliquid Gets Its First ETF

What’s going on:

The first-ever Hyperliquid ETF just launched.

21Shares’ THYP ended day one with $1.8M in trading volume, which Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart called a “very solid” debut.

The ETF gives investors exposure to HYPE without having to buy or custody the token directly.

Bitwise is expected to launch its own HYPE ETF next, with Grayscale also trying to enter the race.

What it means:

Hyperliquid is officially entering traditional finance.

The launch wasn’t massive, but it shows real demand beyond crypto-native traders.

If more ETFs come online and flows grow, HYPE could become one of the next altcoin narratives institutions start watching.

• CFTC backs Kalshi in Ohio fight over prediction markets jurisdictional battle

• Bitcoin dominance rebounds above 58% signaling crypto market consolidation phase

• Bitcoin Fog appeal tests DOJ theory that global crypto services fall under US law

If the Clarity Act passes, crypto stops looking like an “experiment” and starts looking more like a real part of the financial system.

Big banks, brokerages, and institutions are already building behind the scenes, and this bill could massively accelerate that trend.

That doesn’t mean prices instantly moon overnight.

But it could mark the beginning of a much bigger shift: crypto moving from the edge of finance, directly into the core of global capital markets.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.