Hyperliquid Takes A Bigger Shot at Polymarket

Welcome back to The Warmup.

Happy Wednesday to all privacy maxxis!

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Hyperliquid Takes A Bigger Shot at Polymarket

• BTC Key Support Setup

• ETF Rotation Is Getting Interesting

Market: Crypto is pulling back while stocks are mixed, with the Dow and DXY holding green as risk appetite cools.

Hyperliquid Takes A Bigger Shot at Polymarket

What’s going on:

Hyperliquid expanded HIP-4 to support prediction markets tied to real-world events, starting with U.S. inflation data and Fed rate decisions.

That puts it directly against Polymarket and Kalshi.

The key difference is resolution.

Polymarket uses UMA, an external oracle system where tokenholders vote if results are disputed.

Hyperliquid uses its own validator set, meaning the same validators securing the L1 also settle the markets.

What it means:

No external oracle. No third-party dispute layer.

Hyperliquid’s real edge is combining prediction markets with trading.

Users could bet on inflation falling, then long BTC, ETH, or tokenized NVDA on the same platform.

That turns macro events into tradable setups, not just yes/no bets.

Now we’ll see if traders actually want everything under one roof.

BTC Key Support Setup

What’s going on:

BTC is pulling back toward a key support zone around $74.3K.

The plan is to wait for confirmation on the 4H timeframe before looking for new longs. No need to catch the knife early.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Support: $74.3K → main long-entry area

• Resistance: $78K → first major hurdle

• Next target: $82K–$83K if momentum returns

• Breakdown risk: Close below $74K weakens the setup

Directional Bias: Cautiously bullish

BTC can still bounce here, but bulls need to defend the green support line first.

What we’re waiting for:

• 4H confirmation near $74.3K

• Strong buyer reaction

• Reclaim of $78K

• If $74K holds, this becomes a clean risk/reward long setup.

ETF Rotation Is Getting Interesting

What’s going on:

Bitcoin ETFs just saw $2.26B in outflows over two weeks, the worst stretch of 2026. ETH ETFs are seeing pressure too.

But HYPE and XRP ETFs are moving the other way, with positive flows.

For HYPE, the catalyst is simple: strong protocol revenue, token buybacks, and a token up 101% YTD.

For XRP, it’s regulatory clarity. The Clarity Act could finally remove the SEC overhang.

What it means:

Investors aren’t rotating into every altcoin. They’re rotating into assets with clear catalysts.

BTC and ETH are still stuck under macro pressure, while HYPE and XRP have specific stories the market can actually price.

We’ll see if the trend continues.

• DeFi TVL slides 14% since KelpDAO exploit as risk appetite retreats

• TD Cowen says crypto bill unlikely to pass this year amid worsening political environment

• Coinbase-incubated Base blockchain rolls out MCP gateway to AI interfaces like Claude

The AI trade is quietly shifting away from just “who has the smartest model” and toward “who can actually power and deploy AI at scale,” which may end up being the much bigger opportunity.

NVIDIA is still dominating, but the more interesting story is that the real bottlenecks are now power, cooling, networking, and data center infrastructure, not just GPUs themselves.

At the same time, upcoming IPOs from companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX could create massive liquidity rotations and temporary pullbacks across the broader AI market.

And honestly, that may end up creating some of the best buying opportunities in second-order AI plays most investors still are not paying attention to.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.