Harvard Rotates From Bitcoin to Ethereum

Welcome back to The Warmup.

Happy Monday! This is me seeing my neighbor who was early to Nvidia get a new car while I hold crypto.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Harvard Rotates From Bitcoin to Ethereum

• BTC Momentum Continuation Play

• Institutions Are Quietly Moving Into DeFi Lending

• Calendar

Market: Crypto is sliding as risk-off sentiment picks up, while equities stay relatively resilient.

Harvard Rotates From Bitcoin to Ethereum

What’s going on:

Harvard Management Company trimmed its Bitcoin ETF exposure by 21% in Q4 while opening its first-ever position in an Ether ETF.

The endowment cut its stake in iShares Bitcoin Trust to 5.35M shares, worth $265.8M at year-end, down from 6.81M shares the prior quarter.

That reduction came during a volatile stretch when Bitcoin peaked near $126K in October before sliding below $90K by December.

At the same time, Harvard built a new $86.8M position in iShares Ethereum Trust, acquiring 3.87M shares.

It’s the endowment’s first publicly disclosed investment tied to Ethereum.

Even after the trim, Bitcoin remains Harvard’s largest publicly disclosed equity holding, larger than its stakes in Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon.

What it means:

This isn’t Harvard exiting crypto. It’s rebalancing.

Reducing Bitcoin while adding Ethereum suggests a shift from pure store-of-value exposure toward platform and infrastructure upside.

In other words, less “digital gold,” more “financial rails.”

Institutions aren’t leaving crypto. They’re getting more selective about where in the stack they want exposure.

BTC Momentum Continuation Play

What’s going on:

Bitcoin is bouncing after a healthy pullback, with RSI reset and momentum turning back up.

Price is holding above key support, suggesting continuation rather than breakdown.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Entry: Current Market Price

• Support: $68,000

• Target: $70,000

• Stop: $67,500

Directional Bias: Cautiously bullish

What we’re waiting for:

As long as BTC holds above $67.5K, the setup favors a push toward $70K.

Institutions Are Quietly Moving Into DeFi Lending

What’s going on:

Wall Street heavyweight Apollo Global Management is pushing deeper into crypto through a new deal with Morpho.

Under the agreement, Apollo or its affiliates can acquire up to 90M MORPHO tokens over the next four years, equal to 9% of total supply, via open market or private transactions.

The deal comes with ownership caps and transfer restrictions, keeping it firmly in the “strategic, not degen” bucket.

But this isn’t just a token bet. Apollo and the Morpho Association will collaborate on onchain lending markets, using Morpho’s infrastructure.

Morpho already sits among the largest DeFi lending platforms, with roughly $5.8B in TVL, spanning permissionless markets and curated yield vaults.

What it means:

This is another clear signal that institutional capital is warming up to DeFi plumbing, not just ETFs and tokenized treasuries.

Apollo isn’t chasing hype. It’s positioning around blockchain-based credit and lending rails, where real yield and scale live.

Short term, expect volatility.

Long term, this is DeFi getting quietly absorbed into the future financial stack.

Key Events this Week

Major token unlocks:

• LayerZero (ZRO): ~$46M unlock on Feb 20 (~6% of supply)

• Kaito (KAITO): ~$10M unlock on Feb 20 (~10% of supply)

Macroeconomic data calendar:

Markets start the week with a holiday pause, but volatility risk builds quickly as Fed signals, inflation data, and earnings stack up.

Mon (Feb 16):

Presidents’ Day (US Markets Closed): US equity and bond markets shut → lighter liquidity could exaggerate moves once markets reopen.

Earnings Season (~15% of S&P 500): A solid batch of reports this week → insights into margins, demand trends, and forward guidance.

Wed (Feb 18):

December Durable Goods Orders: Measures demand for big-ticket manufactured goods → strength signals capex resilience; weakness points to slowing growth.

Fed Meeting Minutes: Details from the latest FOMC meeting → clues on rate trajectory, inflation risks, and internal policy debates.

Fri (Feb 20):

December PCE Inflation Data: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge → hotter data raises tightening risk; cooler prints support rate-cut expectations.

Major Earnings Releases:

• Tue (Feb 17): eToro

• Kevin O'Leary wins $2.8M defamation judgment against BitBoy

• Vitalik Buterin says prediction markets need to stop catering to 'dumb opinions'

• Grayscale files to convert AAVE token trust into ETF to list on NYSE Arca

We’re not late-cycle, but entering a healthier mid-cycle phase where growth is broadening beyond just mega-cap tech.

The Russell 2000 breakout and the surge in ISM new orders point to real economic acceleration, not a fragile, top-heavy rally.

Historically, that kind of setup has been a tailwind for Ethereum and the broader crypto market (alts) once confidence and participation expand.

If this breakout holds, the risk isn’t that the cycle is over, it’s that many investors are still positioned like it never restarted.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.