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- Crypto Winter May Be Over
Crypto Winter May Be Over
PLUS: USD1 Stablecoin Enters the UFC Spotlight
Welcome back to The Warmup.
Happy Monday. Apparently, Jim Cramer is now bearish on Bitcoin.
Here’s what we’re watching:
Market Snapshot
Crypto Winter May Be Over
BTC Breakout Watch
USD1 Stablecoin Enters the UFC Spotlight
Calendar
Market: Risk assets are trading higher today (led by Solana’s) while stocks are green and a weaker DXY is adding support to crypto and gold.
Crypto Winter May Be Over
What’s going on:
Standard Chartered says Bitcoin’s drop to $59K may have marked the cycle low.
The bank is keeping its $100K year-end target and expects ETH to outperform BTC if momentum returns.
In its words: “Winter is over. Welcome back to crypto spring.”
The setup is improving fast.
The SpaceX IPO liquidity drain is now behind us.
The Iran war fears are easing. And after weeks of ETF outflows, Bitcoin ETFs finally saw money come back in, with $86M in inflows on Friday.
What it means:
Crypto’s biggest overhangs are starting to lift at the same time.
BTC is back above $65K, alts are ripping, and animal spirits are showing signs of life again.
It does not mean the rally is guaranteed, but the market finally has a cleaner setup than it did a few weeks ago.
HOOD Ascending Triangle
What’s going on:
HOOD has broken above its ascending triangle near $95 and is now trading around $98, showing strong bullish momentum.
Key levels we’re watching:
Support: $93–$95
Resistance: $100
Target: $110–$120
Risk: Below $93 weakens setup
Directional Bias: Bullish
As long as HOOD holds above the breakout zone, the setup favors continuation higher.
USD1 Stablecoin Enters the UFC Spotlight
What’s going on:
World Liberty Financial, the Trump family-backed crypto project, is bringing its USD1 stablecoin to UFC Freedom 250.
The company will add $250,000 in USD1 to the event’s Performance of the Night bonus pool, giving fighters part of their payout in a dollar-backed stablecoin.
The amount is small, but the visibility is huge.
USD1 branding will appear inside the Octagon at a UFC event held on the White House South Lawn, tied to Trump, Dana White, and one of the biggest sports audiences in the country.
What it means:
Stablecoins are moving beyond crypto.
They are becoming payment rails, sponsorship tools, and mainstream financial products.
For USD1, this is a major branding moment.
But because World Liberty is tied to the Trump family, the deal also brings conflict-of-interest concerns.
Stablecoins are going mainstream fast, but politics is now part of the story.
 | ZEC: |
 | Metaplanet: |
 | AERO: |
Key Events this Week
Major token unlocks:
Spark (SPK): ~$18M unlock on Jun 17 (~27% of supply)
Macroeconomic data calendar:
Mon (June 15):
May Industrial Production: Tracks output from factories, mines, and utilities → stronger production signals economic momentum, while weakness can point to slowing growth.
Tue (June 16):
May Housing Starts: Measures new home construction → higher starts suggest housing strength, while lower starts may signal softer demand or tighter credit conditions.
Wed (June 17):
May Retail Sales: Tracks consumer spending → strong sales show the consumer is holding up, weaker sales suggest demand is cooling.
Fed Interest Rate Decision: The biggest event of the week → markets will watch whether the Fed keeps rates steady, signals future cuts, or stays cautious on inflation.
Kevin Warsh’s First Meeting as Fed Chair: Investors will be watching his tone closely → his first press conference could set the direction for how markets read the new Fed.
Thu (June 18):
June Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Regional factory survey → positive readings show manufacturing expansion, while negative readings signal contraction.
Fri (June 19):
US Markets Closed for Juneteenth: No regular stock market trading → liquidity may be lighter heading into the long weekend.
Are stablecoins becoming mainstream faster than expected? |
The setup is bearish in the short term, but not broken long term.
The big point is that crypto may need one more flush before the real opportunity shows up.
The key is liquidity: if Treasury issuance, IPOs, and slower buybacks stress the system, policymakers may eventually be forced to add support again.
That could make Bitcoin in the $60Ks look less like panic and more like accumulation.
— The Warmup Team
Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.