Crypto’s Worst Crash Ever

Welcome back to The Warmup.

It felt like the sky was falling on Friday, but crypto has a way of bouncing back faster than expected.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Crypto’s Worst Day Leverage Apocalypse Wipes Out $19.5B

• BTC EMA50 Setup

• Hyperliquid Whale Doubles Down

• Calendar

Market: Crypto is bouncing back strong after Friday’s Trump-tariff flash crash, with majors in the green and top movers like SNX, TAO, and ENA surging as the market shakes off $19B in liquidations.

Crypto’s Worst Day Leverage Apocalypse Wipes Out $19.5B

What’s going on:

This Friday was one for the history books. The crypto market just had its most brutal 24 hours ever.

More than $19.5B in leveraged positions were wiped out, forcing 1.6M traders out of the game.

Bitcoin alone saw a $20,000 daily swing, erasing $380B in market cap. To put it in perspective: this liquidation was nearly 10x bigger than the FTX collapse or the March 2020 crash (COVID).

The bloodbath hit longs the hardest. Out of the $19.38B total, $16.7B came from longs (a 6.7-to-1 ratio compared to shorts).

Hyperliquid led the carnage with $10.3B in liquidations.

What it means:

This isn’t the end of crypto. Think of it as a painful reset. Big liquidations clear out leverage and reset positioning, often paving the way for healthier moves ahead.

If tensions ease with China, the uncertainty will fade, and Bitcoin could quickly regain ground.

Great reminder: leverage can be your best friend in rallies… and your worst enemy in crashes.

BTC EMA50 Setup

What’s going on:

Bitcoin closed strong on the daily chart and is now pressing up against the EMA50 (blue), which is acting as short-term resistance. A clean break above this level would likely open the door for continuation higher, with $120K+ in sight.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Support: $108K–$110K → recent buyer defense + EMA200 nearby

• Resistance: $115K (EMA50) → first major test before clear skies

• Breakout target: $120K+ if EMA50 is reclaimed with strength

• Breakdown risk: Close below $108K invalidates bullish momentum

Directional Bias: Cautiously bullish

What we’re waiting for:

• Strong daily close above EMA50 ($115K)

• Volume confirmation on the breakout

• Retest of $115K as support to confirm strength

BTC isn’t without risk, but the structure is constructive. If EMA50 breaks, upside momentum could accelerate quickly toward $120K+.

Hyperliquid Whale Doubles Down

What’s going on:

The Hyperliquid whale who pocketed more than $150M from perfectly timed shorts during Friday’s record crash is already back in action.

After betting against the market just before Trump’s tariff announcement and profiting as $19.5B in leverage was wiped out, the trader has now opened a new short worth over $160M notional on Bitcoin.

The position was entered at $117,370 per BTC with 10x leverage, setting the liquidation level at $123,500, just under Bitcoin’s recent all-time high of $126,080.

What it means:

The return of this whale has become the new storyline in crypto markets. Traders are watching closely to see if another well-timed short will spark fresh volatility in a market that is still reeling from Friday’s liquidation wave.

Whether it is luck, instinct, or something deeper, the Hyperliquid whale is now one of the most influential players in the space.

With $160M riding on the latest bet, their next move could decide whether Bitcoin stabilizes or faces another round of pressure.

Key Events this Week

Major token unlocks:

• Arbitrum (ARB): ~$31M unlock on Oct 16 (~2% of supply)

Macroeconomic data calendar:

Data remains limited amid the government shutdown.

Mon (Oct 13):

• Bank Holiday

Tue (Oct 14):

• Fed Chair Powell Speaks: Always market-moving. Traders will parse tone and language for clues on future policy.

Wed (Oct 15):

• Empire State Manufacturing Index: Survey of NY manufacturers → positive reading signals growth, negative signals contraction.

Thu (Oct 16):

• Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Regional manufacturing gauge, often used as an early indicator for nationwide trends.

• Core PPI (m/m): Producer Price Index excluding food and energy → key inflation signal.

• Core Retail Sales (m/m): Measures consumer spending excluding autos → stronger sales = stronger economy.

• PPI (m/m): Broader producer inflation gauge → rising PPI can mean higher costs passed to consumers.

• Retail Sales (m/m): Overall consumer spending levels → a leading indicator of growth.

• Unemployment Claims: Weekly jobless claims → rising claims point to a weaker labor market.

Fri (Oct 17):

• FOMC Member Waller Speaks: Fed commentary that could hint at future policy direction.

Major Earnings Releases:

• Tue (Oct 14): BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Citi

• Wed (Oct 15): Morgan Stanley, Bank of America

• Thu (Oct 16): Interactive Brokers, Charles Schwab

• Fri (Oct 18): State Street, American Express

• Binance pays $283M in compensation following Friday's depegs

• Galaxy raises $460M in push to transform Texas bitcoin site into AI data hub

• Morgan Stanley to open crypto access to all client accounts

Some people are screaming recession while others swear we are still just getting started in this bull run.

With liquidity rising, rate cuts kicking in, solid growth, and barely any leverage or euphoria left after Friday’s dump, this market is far from done.

A top just doesn’t make sense right now.

Dips are golden buying opportunities, not reasons to panic.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.