Crypto’s Place in Retirement Funds Is Under Fire

Welcome back to The Warmup.

This is me seeing Bitcoin continue sideways price action over the next 12 months.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Crypto’s Place in Retirement Funds Is Under Fire

• ETH Range Fade Setup

• Japan Just Gave Crypto Bulls a Green Light

• Calendar

Market: Crypto trades red while stocks push higher, the dollar weakens, and falling VIX signals easing macro stress.

Crypto’s Place in Retirement Funds Is Under Fire

What’s going on:

After crypto markets erased roughly $2 trillion in value, the debate over whether digital assets belong in U.S. retirement plans is heating up again.

Bitcoin is down about 50% from its October highs, reigniting concerns around volatility just months after Donald Trump signed an executive order allowing 401(k) plans to access alternative assets, including crypto.

SEC Chair Paul Atkins had also recently said the timing made sense to open retirement markets to digital assets.

Critics aren’t buying it.

Duke Financial Economics Center fellow Lee Reiners argues 401(k)s are designed for retirement security, not speculation, especially in assets he says lack intrinsic value.

What it means:

In practice, many retirement plans already have indirect crypto exposure through companies like Coinbase, which sit inside major equity indices.

That may be as far as sponsors are willing to go.

Between extreme volatility, legal liability risks, and the lack of market stabilization mechanisms that exist in traditional markets like the S&P 500, most plan sponsors are unlikely to offer spot crypto or ETFs anytime soon.

Crypto may be maturing fast, but for retirement capital, the bar is still much higher.

ETH Range Fade Setup

What’s going on:

ETH is still in a downtrend, trading below the 4H 200 EMA. The current bounce looks corrective, pushing price back into a clear supply zone rather than signaling a trend reversal.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Support: ~$1,800–1,850 (recent lows)

• Resistance: ~$2,350–2,450 (supply zone)

• Risk: Rejection here opens a move back to lows

Directional Bias: Bearish to neutral

What we’re waiting for:

Rejection or choppy price action at resistance. Until ETH reclaims the 200 EMA, rallies are likely to be sold.

Japan Just Gave Crypto Bulls a Green Light

What’s going on:

Sanae Takaichi won a landslide election, giving her party a supermajority and full control to push reforms. Markets reacted fast. BTC/JPY jumped nearly 5% and Japanese stocks rallied 6%.

Takaichi’s agenda is openly pro-crypto.

She plans to cut crypto taxes from 55% to a flat 20%, allow loss carryforwards, reclassify major cryptocurrencies as financial products, and potentially greenlight crypto ETFs by 2028.

Japan has already seen 120%+ year-on-year growth in onchain activity. This win accelerates that trend.

What it means:

Japan is the world’s third-largest economy, and it’s moving toward becoming one of the most crypto-friendly major markets.

This won’t cause an overnight pump. But clear regulation, lower taxes, and political certainty are powerful tailwinds.

In a market short on good news, this is the kind of structural shift that matters.

Key Events this Week

Major token unlocks:

• Aptos (APT): ~$12M unlock on Feb 10 (~0.7% of supply)

• Avalanche (AVAX): ~$15M unlock on Feb 11 (~0.3% of supply)

Mon (Feb 9):

• December Retail Sales: Snapshot of consumer spending → strong sales signal resilient demand; weak data points to slowing growth.

Wed (Feb 11):

• January Jobs Report: Key labor market read → job growth and wage trends shape Fed policy expectations and rate expectations.

Thu (Feb 12):

• Initial Jobless Claims: Weekly look at layoffs → rising claims suggest labor market cooling; stable claims imply continued strength.

• January Existing Home Sales: Tracks pre-owned home activity → higher sales support housing momentum; declines hint at affordability or rate pressure.

Fri (Feb 13):

• January CPI Inflation Data: Core inflation gauge → critical for the Fed. Higher CPI = persistent inflation risk; lower CPI = easing pressure.

Major Earnings Releases:

• Tue (Feb 10): Robinhood

• Thu (Feb 12): Coinbase

• Jack Dorsey's Block looking to cut up to 10% of workforce in latest efficiency push

• CoinShares says only 10,200 BTC face real quantum risk

• Cathie Wood's Ark Invest buys Bullish

Global liquidity hasn’t disappeared, it just hit a speed bump, and crypto felt it first because it lives at the sharpest edge of the risk curve.

The October liquidation broke market structure and confidence, not the cycle, which is why price has chopped sideways while the system quietly repairs itself.

With financial conditions easing, banks being re-enabled to create liquidity, and governments facing trillions in debt rollovers, the setup for a liquidity-driven rebound is building.

If history rhymes, crypto doesn’t lead the party, it crashes it late, fast, and violently once liquidity finally floods back in.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.