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Crypto's Big Washington Week
PLUS: The Fed Might Hike
Welcome back to The Warmup.
Happy Monday! Take a look at this updated Rainbow Chart Indicator.
Here’s what we’re watching:
Market Snapshot
Crypto's Big Washington Week
ETH Breakdown Play
The Fed Might Hike
Calendar
Market: Crypto is outperforming equities as the DXY weakens.
Crypto's Big Washington Week
What’s going on:
President Trump hosts crypto and prediction market executives at the White House on Wednesday, joined by CFTC Chair Michael Selig and SEC Chair Paul Atkins.
Coinbase, a16z, Ripple, Chainlink, Kalshi, Paradigm, and Polymarket's Shayne Coplan are on the guest list. The meeting kicks off the CFTC's 35-member Innovation Advisory Committee, which convenes Thursday to work through crypto rules, AI, and prediction markets.
It lands while the Clarity Act sits stalled ahead of a September 15 Senate vote.
What it means:
Clear rules decide which projects US investors can actually access, and which stay offshore.
Galaxy Digital's Alex Thorn just cut his odds of the Clarity Act passing in 2026 to roughly 10%, down from 75% in May.
Prediction markets sit near 17%.
That gap between a friendly White House and an actual signed law is where beginners get caught, because headlines move price for a day and legislation moves fundamentals for a decade.
Watch what gets signed. Treat the photo op as the appetizer.
ETH Breakdown Play
What’s going on:
ETH bounced to $1,904 and reclaimed its 20-day EMA near $1,884, weakening the bearish setup.
Key levels we’re watching:
Support: $1,880
Resistance: $1,920–$1,950
Downside target: $1,800 if support fails
Directional Bias: Neutral
What we’re waiting for:
A loss of $1,880 to confirm downside. Holding above it keeps the breakdown thesis on hold.
The Fed Might Hike
What’s going on:
The Fed held rates at 3.50% to 3.75% in July, with three officials voting to hike. Then the data turned.
July payrolls fell by 23,000 against forecasts of an 83,000 gain, and May and June were revised down by a combined 103,000.
Inflation cooled in the same stretch, with headline CPI at 3.4% and core at 2.5%.
Wednesday's minutes cover that July meeting, so they capture how the Fed was thinking before the jobs report landed.
What it means:
Traders are split on September.
CME FedWatch puts the odds of a hike near 44% while Kalshi sits closer to 32%.
A weak labor market argues for cuts and elevated inflation argues for hikes, which leaves the Fed pinned between its two jobs.
That standoff keeps risk assets like crypto grinding sideways, because money waits for clarity before it takes risk.
September 16 is the decision that counts.
 | SOL: |
 | ZRO: |
 | ZEC: |
Key Events this Week
Major token unlocks:
LayerZero (ZRO): ~$18.9M unlock on Aug 20 (~6.8% of supply)
Kaito (KAITO): ~$9.1M unlock on Aug 20 (~10.7% of supply)
Macroeconomic data calendar:
Tue (Aug 18):
July Housing Starts: New home construction breaking ground → rising starts signal builder confidence, falling starts point to a cooling housing market.
July Pending Home Sales: Contracts signed on existing homes → leads closed sales by a month or two, so it previews housing demand.
Wed (Aug 19):
Fed Meeting Minutes, 2:00 p.m. ET: Detailed record of the July 28-29 debate → traders will count how many officials pushed to hike, though this predates the weak July jobs report.
White House Crypto Meeting: Trump, CFTC Chair Selig, SEC Chair Atkins and top crypto executives → signals how hard Washington pushes the Clarity Act before the Sept 15 Senate vote.
Thu (Aug 20):
August Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Regional factory survey → an early read on August growth before the official data lands.
CFTC Innovation Advisory Committee, 1:00 to 4:00 p.m. ET: First meeting of the 35-member panel → agenda covers crypto rules, AI and prediction markets.
Fri (Aug 21):
August S&P Global Services PMI: Survey of service-sector activity → above 50 shows expansion, below 50 signals slowdown.
August S&P Global Manufacturing PMI: Survey of factory activity → pairs with services for the cleanest same-day read on the economy.
Major Earnings Releases:
Tue (Aug 18): Home Depot
Wed (Aug 19): Target, Lowe's, TJX, Estée Lauder, Analog Devices
Thu (Aug 20): Walmart, Deere, Ross Stores
Does the Clarity Act pass before 2027? |
This is what a quiet bear market looks like. Bitcoin near $63,500, roughly 46% below last year, with 30 day implied volatility close to yearly lows and the Fear and Greed Index sitting at 38. Volatility went silent while sentiment stayed heavy.
Underneath the quiet, the plumbing keeps getting built. Tether closed its first KPMG audit. The OCC handed out another national trust charter. Solana ETFs pulled their best inflows since May. That work stays invisible on a weekly chart, and it shapes what this asset class looks like in three years.
The hardest part of investing is holding a view while the tape argues with you. Stretches this quiet feel like nothing is happening, and they are usually the setup for whatever comes next. Keep your size small enough that boredom stays cheap, and stay in the seat long enough to see which direction the market picks.
— The Warmup Team
Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.