- The Warmup by Kaizen
- Posts
- Crypto Rips Higher Over the Holiday
Crypto Rips Higher Over the Holiday
PLUS: Strategy Sells $216M in Bitcoin as Losses Pile Up
Welcome back to The Warmup.
Happy Monday to all the degens turning World Cup parlays into altcoin charts.
Here’s what we’re watching:
Market Snapshot
Crypto Rips Higher Over the Holiday
TAO Symmetrical Triangle Setup
Strategy Sells $216M in Bitcoin as Losses Pile Up
Calendar
Market: Crypto is slightly red, while stocks are holding up, but rising gold, DXY, and VIX show investors are still cautious.
Crypto Rips Higher Over the Holiday
What’s going on:
Ethereum is finally waking up, after lagging behind all cycle.
Crypto majors ripped higher over the July 4 weekend while US markets sat closed, with Bitcoin back near $63,000, up 5% on the week.
Alts led the tape:
ETH +12% to $1,770
SOL +11% to $81
HYPE +12% to $71
ZEC +17% to $450
Two catalysts drove it: a soft June jobs report (57K vs. ~113K expected) that cooled rate-hike fears, and spot Bitcoin ETFs swinging to $223.5M in net inflows on July 2 after bleeding $4B+ in June.
What it means:
Alts outrunning Bitcoin is a classic risk-on signal, and this is the first time the flow picture has pointed up in weeks.
Whales had already been absorbing the ETF selling, buying roughly $16.7B of BTC over the prior two weeks (the kind of divergence that's shown up near past bottoms).
One or two green days don't erase a record-outflow month. The real test is whether this holds once full liquidity returns next week.
TAO Symmetrical Triangle Setup
What’s going on:
TAO is still ranging inside a symmetrical triangle, holding the rising support line but struggling below short-term resistance.
The setup is still alive, but bulls need confirmation before this becomes a clean breakout trade.
Key levels we’re watching:
Support: $200–$205
Resistance: $216–$218
Upside target: $230–$240
Breakout target: $250+
Breakdown risk: Daily close below $190
Directional Bias: Neutral to cautiously bullish
TAO is holding structure, but it needs to reclaim $216–$218 to show real strength.
What we’re waiting for:
Hold above $200
Break above $216–$218
Volume confirmation on the move
TAO still offers solid risk/reward, but confirmation comes only if it starts pushing toward the upper side of the triangle.
Strategy Sells $216M in Bitcoin as Losses Pile Up
What’s going on:
Strategy sold 3,588 BTC for about $216 million last week, trimming holdings to 843,775 BTC, still over 4% of total BTC supply.
Proceeds went toward preferred stock dividends and rebuilding its USD reserve to $2.55 billion, part of a new Digital Credit Capital Framework requiring 12 months of dividend coverage at all times.
The company's average cost basis is $74,476 per BTC, meaning it's sitting on roughly $11.4 billion in paper losses, and it booked an $8.32 billion quarterly loss on digital assets.
What it means:
Strategy formalizing a sale policy turns it into a potential two-way player in BTC markets for the first time, something JPMorgan flagged as "avoidable two-way risk."
Still, the firm bought about 175,000 BTC for $14B so far this year, and Bernstein argues the balance sheet makes forced selling unlikely, this reads more like liquidity management than capitulation.
Worth watching either way: the largest corporate BTC holder is no longer a one-way buyer, and that changes how the market should price MSTR-linked flows.
The obvious trade is Robinhood
The leveraged bet could be hiding deeper in the stack.
While everyone focuses on HOOD, Robinhood is quietly plugging into the infrastructure layer powering its onchain future: Lighter.
Lighter is the perps engine inside Robinhood Wallet, backed by Robinhood Ventures, and now directly exposed to Robinhood’s push into tokenized markets.
We show you why LIT could be the asymmetric infrastructure play, how the tokenomics upgrade changes the setup, what levels matter, and what risks to watch.
 | MORPHO: |
 | SOL: |
 | ZEC: |
Key Events this Week
Major token unlocks:
Pump.fun (PUMP): ~$130M unlock on Jul 12 (~30% of supply)
Aptos (APT): ~$7M unlock on Jul 12 (~0.6% of supply)
Mon (Jul 6):
June S&P Global Services PMI: Measures activity across the services sector → a reading above 50 signals expansion, while below 50 points to contraction.
Tue (Jul 7):
ADP Employment Change: Private payrolls report → strong job growth suggests a resilient labor market, while weaker data may support the case for Fed cuts.
Wed (Jul 8):
Fed Meeting Minutes: Detailed notes from the latest Fed meeting → investors will look for clues on inflation, labor market risks, and future rate policy.
Thu (Jul 9):
Initial Jobless Claims: Weekly unemployment filings → rising claims can signal labor market weakness, while lower claims suggest continued strength.
June Existing Home Sales: Tracks sales of previously owned homes → higher sales point to housing market strength, while falling sales suggest cooling demand.
Fri (Jul 10):
IEA Monthly Report: Global oil market update → key for tracking demand forecasts, supply trends, and energy price pressures.
Do the flipped ETF flows mark the bottom, or just a bounce? |
For weeks, the story was a disconnect: retail chasing green candles while institutions quietly pulled a record $4B+ out of Bitcoin ETFs in June. That kind of split rarely resolves gently.
Now the flows have flipped, whales spent two weeks buying $16.7 billion into the weakness, and alts are outrunning Bitcoin. The exact pattern that's shown up near past cycle lows. It doesn't mean the bottom is confirmed. Sentiment gauges are still sitting in fear, and a single week of inflows doesn't undo a month of exits.
But markets rarely ring a bell at the bottom.
They just quietly stop getting worse while everyone's still bracing for the next leg down. Whether this is that moment or another false start, the setup is worth watching closely as liquidity normalizes this week.
— The Warmup Team
Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.