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- Crypto Rebounds as Traders Bet the War May End Sooner Than Feared
Crypto Rebounds as Traders Bet the War May End Sooner Than Feared
PLUS: Hyperliquid Brings the S&P 500 Onchain
Welcome back to The Warmup.
Normal people hearing you were up 7 figures on “dog wif hat” and didn’t sell.
Here’s what we’re watching:
Market Snapshot
Crypto Rebounds as Traders Bet the War May End Sooner Than Feared
S&P 500 Rounded Top Short
Hyperliquid Brings the S&P 500 Onchain
Market: Solana leads crypto gains, Bitcoin steady above $70K, while stocks slide (Nasdaq weakest) and gold jumps as safe haven amid higher volatility.
Crypto Rebounds as Traders Bet the War May End Sooner Than Feared
What’s going on:
Crypto bounced Thursday after a rough risk-off stretch.
Bitcoin slipped below $69K during the selloff but recovered to $70.7K as markets reacted to comments from Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu.
He suggested the war with Iran could end “a lot faster than people think,” sparking relief.
Oil prices reversed lower after spiking (swinging as much as 15% intraday), easing macro pressure, while U.S. stocks also climbed in the afternoon. Gold fell 0.5% on the day.
What it means:
The market is pricing in quicker de-escalation. With oil pulling back and war fears cooling, one of the biggest headwinds for crypto has been removed.
BTC continuing to outperform gold is a positive sign. If this relief rally holds, we could see stronger momentum in the short term.
Great time to be watching how BTC holds these levels.
S&P 500 Rounded Top Short
What’s going on:
S&P 500 forming a possible rounded top near the 200-day EMA. Macro turning ugly: hot economic data + worsening Middle East oil disruptions.
Key levels we’re watching:
Key breakdown: $6,600 (200-day EMA)
First target: $6,500 (range low)
Deeper target: $6,550
Invalidation: Hold above $7,000
Directional Bias: Cautiously bearish
What we’re waiting for:
Clean break + close below 6,600 with volume
Macro confirmation (data/oil pressure)
Tight stops above 200-day EMA
Hyperliquid Brings the S&P 500 Onchain
What’s going on:
S&P 500 perpetual futures are now live on Hyperliquid, and this one is official.
Trade[XYZ] secured a licensing agreement with S&P Dow Jones Indices to list the contracts, settling in USDC and trading 24/7.
That means the S&P 500 index is now tradeable with leverage on Hyperliquid, potentially as high as 20x+.
It follows Hyperliquid’s earlier expansion into gold, oil, and equity-linked perps (HIP-3), which now represent 5.5% of total platform volume (around $215M on Sunday).
HIP-3 open interest is nearing $1.5B, up 6x since December 2025, and those same products drove $991M in 24-hour volume during the recent Iran attack.
What it means:
Hyperliquid is quickly turning into a real bridge between Wall Street and onchain trading.
An officially licensed S&P 500 product (plus growing traditional asset volume and Hyperliquid’s $29M Policy Center engaging DC) shows they’re playing the game right for bigger adoption.
We’re not at full TradFi migration yet, but the momentum is clearly building.
HIP-3 is already driving serious numbers, and this could pull even more capital into decentralized perps.
Great time to be trading (or watching) on Hyperliquid.
 | HYPE: |
 | SEA: |
 | TAO: |
Hyperliquid S&P 500 perps now live. Bullish? |
Finding real edge in today’s market is less about prediction and more about positioning.
It comes down to understanding flows, liquidity, and structural narratives before they become consensus trades.
High-performance onchain venues like Hyperliquid are emerging as a key theme, with the potential to reshape how capital moves if adoption continues to accelerate.
In this environment, the investors who win are likely not the loudest ones chasing momentum, but those steadily aligning their portfolios with where capital is structurally heading next.
— The Warmup Team
Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.