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- Crypto Pops on Iran Pause
Crypto Pops on Iran Pause
PLUS: Ethereum's Winter Nearing End
Welcome back to The Warmup.
This was me in 1999 instead of collecting NVIDIA shares.
Here’s what we’re watching:
Market Snapshot
Crypto Pops on Iran Pause
Altseason Signals are Starting to Flash
Calendar
Market: Crypto is surging, with Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana leading gains, while equities rise modestly, the dollar weakens, gold dips, and VIX fear drops sharply.
Crypto Pops on Iran Pause
What’s going on:
Trump’s weekend ultimatum to Iran tanked markets. BTC dumped from $76k to sub $68.5k as fear spiked.
This morning he announced a 5 day strike postponement after good talks with Iran. Risk on flipped instantly.
BTC surged 3.5% to $70,800. ETH gained 5% to $2,170. Oil crashed 8% to $90. Dow futures jumped hard.
Still just a pause. The Strait remains closed. Talks continue. Trump says he’s ready to strike if needed. Volatility stays high.
What it means:
Crypto showed how fast it rebounds on de-escalation news. If talks lead to real resolution the major war premium could vanish and unleash big upside.
BTC holding $70k+ and ETH strength are positive signals. Relief rallies can extend on good headlines.
Great spot to stay positioned in quality names while watching developments closely.
Ethereum's Winter Nearing End
What’s going on:
Bitmine Immersion (Tom Lee-chaired) bought another 65,341 ETH, pushing total holdings to 4.66M ETH ($10B, 3.86% of circulating supply).
Third week of heavy buying.
It now holds over 5x more ETH than the next biggest treasury (SharpLink 863k).
Total assets $11B including cash and stakes. 3.14M ETH staked for $272M annual yield at scale.
Lee says ETH has outperformed stocks 18% since Iran conflict began, acting as a strong “war-time” store of value.
Bitmine is accelerating buys because “ETH is in the final stages of mini-crypto winter.”
What it means:
Big institutional bets signal the dip is nearly over.
ETH’s relative strength in uncertainty strengthens its case. If the mini-winter ends, this accumulation could drive real momentum.
Solid setup to stay long ETH and strong ecosystem plays while these flows build.
 | HYPE: |
 | TAO: |
 | COIN: |
Key Events this Week
Major token unlocks:
Plasma (XPL): ~$8M unlock on Mar 25 (~4% of supply)
Jupiter (JUP): ~$8M unlock on Mar 28 (~1.5% of supply)
Macroeconomic data calendar:
Tue (Mar 24):
March S&P Global Services PMI data: Survey of service-sector activity → positive reading (>50) indicates expansion, negative (<50) signals slowdown. Key gauge of US economic health amid uncertainty.
Wed (Mar 25):
US Crude Oil Inventory data (EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report): Weekly energy report → rising inventories can signal weaker demand (bearish for oil prices), falling inventories suggest tighter supply (bullish for oil prices).
Thu (Mar 26):
Initial Jobless Claims data: Weekly measure of new unemployment filings → lower claims indicate a resilient labor market, higher claims may signal cooling employment conditions.
Fri (Mar 27):
March MI Consumer Sentiment data: Measures household confidence → stronger sentiment implies resilient consumer spending and economic optimism. Recent preliminary data showed a dip amid geopolitical concerns.
March MI Inflation Expectations data: Tracks consumer views on future price growth → higher expectations can influence wage/price pressures and Fed policy outlook.
Bullish on ETH here? |
AI is moving from a narrative to a real economic force that will start separating winners from losers over the next few years.
The biggest opportunity is not just owning AI assets, but understanding the second-order effects across markets, productivity, and capital allocation.
At the same time, volatility in crypto and tech should be expected, especially if this cycle ends up resembling the dot-com era with sharp drawdowns before long-term upside.
The key is staying adaptable, focusing on structural trends, and positioning early rather than reacting once the opportunity becomes obvious.
— The Warmup Team
Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.