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Crypto Levels Up in 2025
PLUS: Trump Pardons Former Binance CEO CZ
Welcome back to The Warmup.
It’s Friday and crypto’s buzzing. Trump’s bullish, Bitcoin’s steady, and a16z says the next wave is just starting.
Here’s what we’re watching:
Market Snapshot
Crypto Levels Up in 2025
Dolphin Demand Holds the Key to Bitcoin’s Next Move
Trump Pardons Former Binance CEO CZ
Market: Green across the board with Ethereum leading gains and Solana holding steady. Bitcoin stays firm above $110K as the VIX drops, signaling a clear risk-on mood.
Crypto Levels Up in 2025
What’s going on:
Andreessen Horowitz just dropped its annual State of Crypto 2025 report and it paints a very bullish picture.
The number of monthly active crypto users has surged to 40–70M, up by roughly 10M from last year. The total crypto market cap has crossed $4T.
The report highlights key shifts driving this growth:
Stablecoins have gone mainstream, now representing about 1% of all U.S. dollars on public blockchains.
Layer-2 networks are faster and cheaper, opening the door for consumer-scale apps.
The AI x crypto crossover is emerging, with AI agents using blockchains for payments, identity, and incentives.
On top of that, the U.S. regulatory climate is improving and institutions are diving in.
What it means:
Crypto isn’t stuck in the past, it’s evolving into real-world infrastructure.
After years of building through the noise, the foundations are finally paying off. Developers are back. Capital is flowing in. And for the first time, policymakers seem aligned instead of fighting innovation.
Stablecoins are becoming a global settlement layer.
AI is finding its perfect partner in crypto’s open systems.
Builders have the fastest, cheapest rails yet to create new financial products.
If adoption and regulation keep moving like this, the next bull run won’t be about hype. It’ll be about integration.
Great time to stay close to the builders who are shaping what comes next.
Dolphin Demand Holds the Key to Bitcoin’s Next Move
What’s going on:
Bitcoin’s short-term momentum is cooling off, but the long-term demand base remains strong.
The Dolphin cohort (wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC, which include ETFs, corporations, and large holders) now control 26% of total supply, or about 5.16M BTC.
This group has been the main driver of this cycle’s strength, adding 681K BTC in 2025 while every other cohort has reduced holdings. Historically, when Dolphins accumulate, Bitcoin trends higher. When they slow down, corrections follow.
Right now, their annual holdings growth is 907K BTC, still above the 365-day average of 730K BTC, a sign the bull cycle isn’t over yet.
But the pace is slowing. If accumulation doesn’t reaccelerate soon, Bitcoin’s correction could deepen.
What it means:
This is not the end of the bull cycle.
As long as Dolphin accumulation stays positive, structural demand remains intact. A renewed pickup in buying could send BTC back toward new highs above $126K.
Short-term, the market is still digesting gains with resistance around $115K and support near $100K. A break below that could open the door to a deeper pullback toward $75K.
Trump Pardons Former Binance CEO CZ
What’s going on:
President Donald Trump has officially pardoned former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ), marking one of the biggest political and cultural shifts for crypto in U.S. history.
White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed the move, calling it the “end of the Biden administration’s war on crypto.” She said Zhao’s prosecution was politically motivated and lacked evidence of fraud or victims.
CZ thanked Trump on X, saying he’ll “do everything we can to make America the Capital of Crypto.”
Binance’s new CEO, Richard Teng, called the pardon “a milestone for the industry,” signaling a fresh start for Binance and for U.S. crypto policy.
Zhao was sentenced to four months in prison in 2023 for failing to maintain proper anti–money laundering controls. Despite a lifetime ban from running Binance, speculation is already swirling that he could return to a leadership role after the pardon.
What it means:
The pardon represents a major policy reversal and a symbolic win for the crypto community.
It shows that the Trump administration is betting big on crypto’s role in the U.S. economy and positioning America as a global leader in digital assets.
Markets are watching for what comes next: a friendlier regulatory environment, possible corporate reshuffling at Binance, and renewed political momentum around crypto.
Love him or hate him, CZ’s pardon will be remembered as a turning point, the moment Washington stopped fighting crypto and started embracing it.
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Where do you think crypto goes next? |
Markets bounced back quickly after the U.S. and China tension, but the latest dip came out of nowhere.
No clear trigger, just a reminder that volatility never really leaves this market.
Even so, the bigger picture still leans bullish with momentum quietly rebuilding.
It might not happen next week, but Q4 still looks like the setup for new highs and fresh energy ahead.
— The Warmup Team
Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.