Crypto Drops as Geopolitical Tensions Rise

Welcome back to The Warmup.

Happy Monday, thinking about all of the TGEs that have been delayed because of market conditions.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Crypto Drops as Geopolitical Tensions Rise

• ETH Range Reclaim Setup

• A Quantum-Safe Bitcoin Workaround Emerges

• Calendar

Market: SOL is leading, BTC and ETH are grinding up, while rising VIX hints at some volatility under the surface.

Crypto Drops as Geopolitical Tensions Rise

What’s going on:

Markets took a hit after Iran peace negotiations fell apart.

Vice President Vance walked away without a deal, and shortly after, Trump announced a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.

That immediately rattled global markets.

Bitcoin dropped from $73K+ to around $71K, while ETH slid 4% to $2,200. At the same time, oil spiked hard, jumping 7% and briefly pushing toward $100.

But it’s not just geopolitics. Onchain data shows heavy selling pressure too.

Bitcoin is seeing around $20M per hour in profit-taking above the $70K level, with large holders offloading into strength.

What it means:

This is a mix of macro panic and internal market pressure.

Geopolitical shocks like this tend to create short-term volatility, similar to past “buy the fear” moments.

But at the same time, BTC is running into real resistance from sellers locking in profits after the recent move up.

That combination makes things choppy. Even if the macro noise fades, this level likely takes time to break cleanly.

Bottom line. The path to $80K isn’t dead, but it’s not going to be a straight line either.

ETH Range Reclaim Setup

What’s going on:

ETH pulled back after testing $2,300 and is now holding the 4H EMA200 ($2,130) as support.

Price is consolidating, suggesting a potential higher low and continuation setup.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Support: $2,130 (EMA200)

• Pivot: $2,150

• Resistance: $2,300–$2,360

• Invalidation: 4H candle close below $2,130 (EMA200)

Directional Bias: Cautiously bullish

Bottom Line: As long as ETH holds the EMA200, this looks like a buy-the-dip setup toward resistance. Lose that level, and momentum likely flips bearish.

A Quantum-Safe Bitcoin Workaround Emerges

What’s going on:

Quantum-proofing Bitcoin usually means a soft fork and years of debate.

But StarkWare researcher Avihu Mordechai Levy just proposed a workaround.

His QSB scheme uses hash-based puzzles and Lamport signatures to make transactions quantum-resistant, all within Bitcoin’s current rules.

The tradeoff is heavy.

Users must solve a massive off-chain puzzle (~70 trillion attempts) before sending a transaction.

It’s GPU-solvable, but costs a few hundred dollars and skips the public mempool by going straight to mining pools.

So it works… just not at scale.

What it means:

This isn’t a permanent fix, but it’s still an important signal.

It shows developers aren’t just waiting around for a perfect, consensus-driven upgrade.

They’re actively experimenting with ways to protect Bitcoin today, even if the solutions are messy and expensive.

In the near term, this kind of approach likely stays niche. High costs and non-standard transactions make it impractical for everyday use.

But zooming out, it’s directionally bullish.

The more paths explored, the higher the odds Bitcoin can adapt when quantum threats actually become real.

Key Events this Week

Major token unlocks:

• Arbitrum (ARB): $10M unlock on Apr 16 (~2% of supply)

• deBridge (DBR): $9M unlock on Apr 17 (~13% of supply)

Macroeconomic data calendar:

Mon (Apr 13):

• March Existing Home Sales: Tracks sales of pre-owned homes → higher sales signal housing strength, while declines may point to cooling demand.

Tue (Apr 14):

• March PPI Inflation Data: Measures wholesale price changes → rising PPI can signal building inflation pressures before they hit consumers.

Thu (Apr 16):

• Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Regional manufacturing activity gauge → readings above zero signal expansion, below zero indicate contraction.

• Initial Jobless Claims: Weekly measure of unemployment filings → rising claims suggest labor market weakness, falling claims indicate resilience

Major Earnings Releases:

• Mon (Apr 13): Goldman Sach’s

• Tue (Apr 14): JP Morgan, Citi, BlackRock, Wells Fargo

• Wed (Apr 15): Bank of America, Morgan Stanley

• Thu (Apr 16): Netflix, TSMC

• Aave DAO approves $25M Aave Labs funding grant in binding 'Aave Will Win' vote

• World decreasing WLD token unlock rate by over 40% starting in July

• 'It's time to pass the Clarity Act': Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong backs Bessent's crypto bill push

Stay focused on long term trends because institutional investors are accumulating based on where crypto is headed over the next decade, not the next few months .

Emotional investing is dangerous, especially in volatile markets like crypto, so having a systematic approach matters more than trying to react to every move .

Not all parts of crypto will win, with areas like meme coins and weak projects likely fading while stronger sectors like stablecoins and tokenization continue growing .

Despite short term uncertainty and external risks, the overall direction of the market remains positive as institutions continue entering and building long term positions .

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.