- The Warmup by Kaizen
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- Consumer Confidence Just Hit Rock Bottom
Consumer Confidence Just Hit Rock Bottom
PLUS: Bitcoin Is Starting to Decouple
Welcome back to The Warmup.
Happy Monday! This is how Hyperliquid looks at me after Trump tweets during the weekend.
Here’s what we’re watching:
Market Snapshot
Consumer Confidence Just Hit Rock Bottom
BTC SMA Breakdown Play
Bitcoin Is Starting to Decouple
Calendar
Market: Risk-on momentum continues as crypto and equities grind higher, while a weaker DXY and low VIX keep supporting the move.
Consumer Confidence Just Hit Rock Bottom
Source: Bloomberg
What’s going on:
US consumer sentiment just fell to a record low.
The University of Michigan’s index dropped to 44.8 in May, down from 49.8 in April, marking the third straight monthly decline.
The main problem: consumers are getting squeezed by higher prices, expensive gas, and rising inflation fears from the US-Iran conflict.
Long-term inflation expectations jumped from 3.5% to 3.9%, the highest level in 7 months.
In plain English: markets may look strong, but households feel weak.
What it means:
This is a warning sign for consumer spending.
If people feel poorer, they may start cutting back, especially on discretionary items.
For investors, that means being careful with pure consumer names and favoring sectors less tied to household confidence, like AI infrastructure, energy security, defense, and space.
Those themes can keep attracting capital even when consumers are feeling the pain.
BTC SMA Breakdown Play
What’s going on:
BTC broke below the 50D SMA near $76.5K after being squeezed between the 200D SMA at ~$80.7K and the 50D SMA.
That gives bears short-term control.
Key levels we’re watching:
Support/Target: $72.4K → channel bottom + 200SMA confluence
Resistance: $76.5K → 50D SMA reclaim level
Invalidation: Quick move back above the 50D SMA
Directional Bias: Bearish short-term
As long as BTC stays below the 50D SMA, the short setup remains active.
What we’re waiting for:
Follow-through selling toward $72.4K
Rejection near the 50D SMA
Tight risk management in case of whiplash.
Bitcoin Is Starting to Decouple
Source: Unchained
What’s going on:
75 days into the U.S.-Iran war, Bitcoin is outperforming both stocks and gold.
The S&P 500 is at all-time highs. Gold is down 11%. Bitcoin is up 20%.
That’s surprising because most investors still treat Bitcoin like a high-risk tech asset, not a geopolitical hedge.
But Bitcoin has two advantages during global uncertainty.
It trades 24/7, allowing investors to react instantly to geopolitical shocks. And unlike gold or real estate, it can move across borders instantly.
Historically, Bitcoin has also recovered from war-driven selloffs faster than traditional assets once liquidity returns.
What it means:
The market may be starting to view Bitcoin differently.
Instead of acting purely like a risk asset, Bitcoin is slowly behaving more like a portable global hedge.
And if institutional models haven’t fully priced that in yet, this shift could still be early.
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Key Events this Week
Major token unlocks:
Sui (SUI): $15M unlock on Jun 1 (0.3% of supply)
Macroeconomic data calendar:
Mon (May 25):
US Markets Closed (Memorial Day): Equity and bond markets closed for the holiday → lower liquidity conditions can increase volatility in global markets.
US-Iran Agreement Details Expected: Markets watching for potential geopolitical and energy impacts → any escalation or easing could influence oil prices and inflation expectations.
Tue (May 26):
May Consumer Confidence Data: Measures how optimistic consumers feel about the economy and spending → stronger confidence supports consumer spending and economic resilience.
Thu (May 28):
April PCE Inflation Data: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge → higher-than-expected inflation could reduce chances of near-term rate cuts.
US Q1 2026 GDP Data: Measures overall economic growth → stronger GDP supports a resilient economy narrative, weaker growth raises slowdown concerns.
April New Home Sales Data: Tracks newly built home purchases → rising sales suggest housing demand remains healthy despite high interest rates.
Is Bitcoin becoming a geopolitical hedge? |
Crypto may finally be leaving its “casino era” and entering its infrastructure era.
The projects attracting the most attention right now aren’t just memecoins or hype cycles anymore.
They’re the ones trying to build products institutions, enterprises, or real users might actually rely on long term.
The next generation of winners probably won’t win by being “crypto products.”
They’ll win by becoming useful products that the mainstream adopts without even realizing crypto is underneath.
Think: Hyperliquid and Polymarket
— The Warmup Team
Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.