- The Warmup by Kaizen
- Posts
- Coldcard Exploit Millions
Coldcard Exploit Millions
PLUS: CLARITY Act Runs Out of Runway
Welcome back to The Warmup.
Happy Monday! Welcome to another week in Nasdaqistan.
Here’s what we’re watching:
Market Snapshot
Coldcard Exploit Millions
BTC Breakout Watch
CLARITY Act Runs Out of Runway
Calendar
Market: Stocks continue to climb while crypto consolidates near recent highs.
Coldcard Exploit Millions
What’s going on:
A firmware flaw in Coldcard hardware wallets has let attackers rebuild private keys and sweep bitcoin out of thousands of wallets.
Galaxy Research counts roughly 1,367 BTC, around $89 million, taken from 4,585 addresses across three waves since July 30, with a fourth wave starting Monday.
The cause traces back to a March 2021 firmware update that pulled seed randomness from software instead of the device's hardware chip, leaving those seeds guessable offline.
What it means:
Self-custody removes exchange risk and puts the full weight of your security on one thing: how random your seed really was.
Victims here followed standard advice. Respected hardware, seed generated offline, paper backup, held for years.
Multisig setups came through largely intact because one weak key was never enough to move funds.
Galaxy's Alex Thorn warns every single-signature Coldcard address created after that 2021 update will eventually be emptied.
BTC Short Setup
What’s going on:
BTC remains below the 200 EMA, and the 4H structure continues to favor downside.
Price is now trading closer to the first target, with $61K still acting as the key support zone.
Key levels we’re watching:
Resistance: $64K (200 EMA)
Support: $61.5K–62K
Target: $61K
Invalidation: Daily close above $64K
Directional Bias: Bearish
BTC remains below the 200 EMA, keeping sellers in control until $64K is reclaimed.
What we’re waiting for:
A move into the $61K support zone
Buyer confirmation before considering longs
CLARITY Act Runs Out of Runway
What’s going on:
The US crypto market structure bill enters its final scheduled Senate week with no floor vote on the calendar.
Senators leave for August recess after August 7, and Majority Leader John Thune has said the chamber lacks time for debate, amendments, and a cloture vote.
Polymarket now prices 2026 passage near 28%, down from 82% in February.
What it means:
The bill draws the line the industry has wanted for years, giving the CFTC authority over digital commodities like bitcoin and the SEC authority over assets that behave like securities.
Three sticking points remain: stablecoin yield language, DeFi safe harbors, and ethics rules for officials who hold crypto.
Sixty votes are required on the floor.
A miss pushes this past the midterms and into 2027, leaving exchanges and token projects operating under case-by-case rules for another year.
 | PROVE: |
 | HYPE: |
 | ADA: |
Key Events this Week
Major token unlocks:
Hyperliquid (HYPE): $23M unlock on Aug 6 (0.2% of released supply, going to core contributors)
Ethena (ENA): $15M unlock on Aug 5 (2% of released supply)
Macroeconomic data calendar:
Tue (Aug 4):
June JOLTS Job Openings: Counts unfilled positions across the economy → openings forecast at 7.25M, down from May's 7.59M. Falling openings signal a cooling labor market.
June Factory Orders: Tracks demand for manufactured goods → a read on industrial health.
Wed (Aug 5):
July ADP Employment Change: Private payroll data released two days ahead of the official report → treated as a preview of Friday.
July ISM Services PMI: Survey of service-sector activity → above 50 shows expansion, below 50 shows contraction.
Thu (Aug 6):
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims: New unemployment filings → rising claims point to a softening job market.
July Challenger Job Cuts: Announced corporate layoffs → an early warning signal on hiring.
Fri (Aug 7):
July Jobs Report (Nonfarm Payrolls): The headline labor number → consensus sits near 91,000 jobs added with unemployment ticking to 4.3%. A moderate print keeps the Fed patient, which risk assets like crypto tend to prefer.
CLARITY Act Senate Deadline: Final scheduled Senate day before August recess → the last realistic window for crypto market structure legislation in 2026.
Major Earnings Releases:
Mon (Aug 3): American Bitcoin (ABTC)
Tue (Aug 4): Hut 8, AMD, SpaceX
Wed (Aug 5): Circle (CRCL), Galaxy Digital (GLXY), Block (XYZ), Riot Platforms, TeraWulf
Thu (Aug 6): MARA Holdings, CleanSpar
After the Coldcard exploit, where is your Bitcoin sitting tonight? |
Crypto sentiment is sitting near record lows. Bitcoin trades just under $63,000, social chatter around BTC hit its most negative reading on record last week, and the trigger was a security failure inside the exact tool everyone recommends.
The uncomfortable part is how carefully the victims did everything. Respected device, seed generated offline, backup written down, coins held for an average of more than three years. Multisig wallets mostly survived, which tells you redundancy beats confidence in any single point of failure.
Every cycle teaches this lesson through someone's loss. Mt. Gox taught custody. FTX taught counterparty risk. Coldcard is teaching entropy. The industry comes out sturdier each time, and the investors who last are the ones who treat security as an ongoing practice. Check your firmware. Spread your keys. Assume the next flaw is sitting somewhere you haven't looked yet.
— The Warmup Team
Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.