Citadel Just Bet Big on Kraken

Welcome back to The Warmup.

It’s Wednesday, and the market’s split in half while Saylor treats every dip like his personal BTC clearance sale.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Kraken Lands a Major Institutional Backer

• HYPE Triangle Squeeze Setup

• Aave Takes Aim at Banks

Market: Bitcoin is holding steady, equities are pushing higher, and gold is quietly leading the macro board as volatility continues to fade.

Kraken Lands a Major Institutional Backer

What’s going on:

Kraken just pulled in a major win, raising $200M from Citadel Securities at a $20B valuation.

This comes right after its earlier $600M raise in September from heavyweights like Jane Street, DRW, Oppenheimer, Tribe Capital, and the family office of co-CEO Arjun Sethi.

For the first time, Kraken publicly confirmed both raises, bringing its total new capital to $800M.

Citadel’s involvement is the headline here. After years of avoiding crypto altogether, the market-making giant is now stepping directly into the industry, preparing to operate across major exchanges and investing in both Kraken and Ripple.

What it means:

For Kraken, the timing is perfect.

The exchange has doubled its revenue year-over-year to $648M, made big acquisitions like its $1.5B purchase of NinjaTrader, and is gearing up for an IPO next year.

The fresh capital will be used for global expansion, new payments products, and strengthening its institutional offerings.

HYPE Triangle Squeeze Setup

What’s going on:

HYPE has been coiling for weeks inside a clean symmetrical triangle, with lower highs and higher lows tightening price into a breakout zone.

Despite market weakness elsewhere, HYPE has shown relative strength, making this consolidation even more meaningful.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Support: $33–$37, where buyers have consistently stepped in

• Resistance: $43, the upper boundary of the triangle

• Breakout trigger: A strong close above the triangle top

• Breakdown trigger: A decisive move below support with volume

Directional Bias: Neutral, leaning bullish

The structure is balanced, but HYPE’s recent outperformance puts a slight edge toward an upside resolution.

A confirmed breakout could open the door to continuation, while a breakdown shifts the bias sharply bearish.

What we’re waiting for:

• A high-volume break and close above resistance

• Continuation signs such as expanding bands and rising RSI

• Clean invalidation levels for tight risk management if support fails

Once this triangle resolves, it should reveal HYPE’s next major trend.

Aave Takes Aim at Banks

What’s going on:

Aave just launched the Aave App, a consumer-facing savings product that looks and feels like a neobank… but runs entirely on crypto rails.

The pitch is strong. Users can earn up to 9% APY on savings, get up to $1M in balance protection, and connect the app to more than 12,000 banks and cards. It also includes automated savings and clean fintech-style UX.

For context, Aave is one of the most established players in Ethereum DeFi, with more than $30B in deposits. Now it is stepping directly into the fintech arena, not as a niche DeFi protocol but as a mainstream banking alternative.

What it means:

Neobanks have spent the last decade slowly pulling users from traditional banks with better design and slightly better rates. But they all relied on legacy banking rails. Aave doesn’t.

A crypto-native structure lets Aave offer higher yields, global liquidity, and lower operational costs. If they can consistently deliver 9% APY with strong account protection, this becomes a serious competitor to both fintech apps and traditional savings accounts.

Aave has the brand, the reputation, and the liquidity to pull this off. If the product is smooth and compliant, it could become one of the first crypto apps that everyday users adopt without realizing they are using DeFi.

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The market feels heavy right now, but sentiment is already near its lowest point and periods like this rarely last long.

Rising global liquidity is laying the groundwork for the next expansion phase even if prices have not reacted yet.

The disconnect between adoption and price is normal in early industries that are still building real, lasting utility.

If you can stay patient through this phase, you will be positioned ahead of the majority when the cycle turns.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.