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- CFTC Opens a Federal Crypto Path
CFTC Opens a Federal Crypto Path
PLUS: Oil Spike Flushes Crypto Longs
Welcome back to The Warmup.
$510 billion has been wiped out from US stocks today as bond yields hit new multi decade highs.
Here’s what we’re watching:
Market Snapshot
CFTC Opens a Federal Crypto Path
GOOGL Symmetrical Triangle
Oil Spike Flushes Crypto Longs
Market: Risk assets are getting hit across the board, with crypto leading the downside as Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana all drop more than 4%. Meanwhile, the dollar and VIX are both moving higher.
CFTC Opens a Federal Crypto Path
What’s going on:
The CFTC is proposing a federal framework that would let exchanges offer retail crypto leverage and margin trading under a new “crypto asset market” category. Platforms that opt in would have to meet rules around market surveillance, anti-manipulation, proof of reserves, and customer protections.
The proposal comes as Congress has stalled on broader crypto market-structure legislation, giving the CFTC a chance to move ahead using its existing authority.
What it means:
For traders, this could give U.S. exchanges a regulated alternative to offshore perp platforms. For exchanges, it could mean broader access to U.S. customers without navigating a patchwork of state rules.
It’s still early, though. This is a proposed framework, not a finished rule, so the details could change before anything goes live.
GOOGL Symmetrical Triangle
What’s going on:
GOOGL is still consolidating inside the triangle, with price now around $345 and nearing the apex.
Key levels:
Long: Break above $352
Short: Break below $340
Upside: $380+
Downside: $320–$325
Directional Bias: Neutral
Price is getting squeezed. We’re waiting for a clean break of either side before taking a position.
Oil Spike Flushes Crypto Longs
What’s going on:
Bitcoin dropped below $84,000 overnight as Iran stepped up attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, sending Brent above $101 and pushing the dollar and Treasury yields higher. BTC fell to around $83,800, while ETH dropped 3.5% to $2,580.
The move triggered roughly $550M in liquidations, with about $487M coming from longs. Smaller coins took the bigger hit. Still, U.S. spot BTC ETFs pulled in $119M on Tuesday, their fourth inflow in five sessions.
What it means:
This looks more like a macro and leverage flush than a breakdown in bitcoin. Longs were crowded, and the oil spike gave the market a reason to unwind them.
The risk is more Hormuz headlines could trigger another round. With nearly $150B in open interest, leverage is still high. FOMC minutes are due later today, so watch flows and funding before reading too much into the dip.
 | PENGU: |
 | HOOD: |
 | JTO: |
Should the CFTC write crypto leverage rules without a new law from Congress? |
Bitcoin lost the $86,000 level overnight as oil pushed above $101 and nearly $500M in mostly long positions were liquidated. Still, Tuesday’s spot BTC ETFs pulled in around $119M.
At the same time, the CFTC proposed a federal lane for leveraged trading, Coinbase plans to bring Pro back by year-end, and Kalshi launched a stock-index perpetual.
The tape looked ugly, but the bigger trend is clear: crypto’s market structure keeps getting more formal.
For beginners, focus on what changes the rules of the market versus what only moves price for a day. Don’t chase the oil move until flows and funding confirm it.
— The Warmup Team
Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.