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- Bitcoin tags $81k, then fades
Bitcoin tags $81k, then fades
PLUS: Nvidia reports tonight
Welcome back to The Warmup.
Happy Wednesday to all the crypto degens who are now Nvidia earnings report experts.
Here’s what we’re watching:
Market Snapshot
Bitcoin tags $81k, then fades
ETH EMA200 Retest Play
Nvidia reports tonight
Market: Crypto is broadly lower today, with BTC, ETH, and SOL all in the red as traditional markets also trade slightly weaker.
Bitcoin tags $81k, then fades
What’s going on:
Bitcoin just posted its strongest week since the November 2024 election rally, up about 23%, and briefly cleared $81,000 for the first time since May.
Then the air came out. Price slipped back toward $79,000 as traders banked gains and altcoins sold harder than bitcoin.
The first leg was forced buying. A record $1.37 billion in bitcoin shorts got liquidated on August 19, with another $739 million two days later.
That is how a squeeze works: traders betting on lower prices get wiped, and their buybacks push the price up even faster.
What it means:
Squeezes start moves. They do not finish them.
Spot bitcoin ETFs are still buying.
August inflows are already a 2026 monthly record near $2.72 billion, and U.S. funds logged a seventh straight inflow day.
The risk is the other side of the same tape.
Short-term whales booked about $1.2 billion in profits in three days, and yesterday's dip flipped some of the pain onto longs.
If ETF flows stall, $80,000 becomes a ceiling instead of a floor.
ETH EMA200 Retest Play
What’s going on:
ETH ripped above the 200-day EMA and is now consolidating around $2,450.
The idea is still a bullish retest: if price pulls back into the breakout zone and holds, continuation higher stays on the table.
Key levels we’re watching:
Support zone: $1,920–$2,200
EMA200: $2,145
Current price: $2,450
Upside target: $2,600+
Invalidation: Losing the $1,900 area
Directional Bias: Bullish
As long as ETH holds the EMA200 / breakout area on any pullback, the setup favors continuation higher.
Nvidia reports tonight
What’s going on:
Nvidia reports fiscal second-quarter results after the close. Wall Street wants roughly $92 billion in sales, almost double last year's $46.7 billion, and about $2.09 in adjusted earnings per share.
The stock is near $210, with a market value around $5.2 trillion. That is large enough to swing the S&P 500 on its own. Shares snapped a seven-day losing streak Tuesday after lagging rivals for most of 2026.
Investors will also hunt for clues on Rubin, the next chip family set to ship this autumn, and on how Nvidia is helping customers finance the buildout.
Last week it agreed to backstop up to $105 billion on an OpenAI data-center lease in Ohio. It has also helped line up about $500 billion in AI infrastructure financing.
What it means:
Think of Nvidia as the risk thermometer for the whole AI trade.
When that trade is hot, liquidity leaks into bitcoin, high-beta tokens, and anything tied to compute. When it wobbles, those same assets get sold first. Crypto does not need Nvidia to "be crypto."
It needs risk appetite.
A clean beat with a strong third-quarter guide near $104 billion keeps the door open. A miss, or soft talk on customer spending, can hit both Nasdaq and crypto in the same session.
 | ZEC: |
 | ZRO: |
 | SOL: |
If Nvidia stumbles tonight, what do you do with crypto risk? |
A 23% bitcoin week feels like a new tape. It is also the kind of week that trains people to confuse a squeeze with a trend.
Forced buying can lift price. It cannot replace buyers who show up the next day without a liquidation cascade behind them. ETF inflows and a quieter derivatives book are the better evidence that this bounce has a chance to stick. Whale profit-taking and a failed hold above $80,000 are the evidence that it might not.
Nvidia reports into that same mood. When the market's most important growth stock is trusted, risk assets get room. When it is not, bitcoin usually does not get a special pass.
We do not need tonight to be perfect. We need the next few sessions to show whether spot demand still wants this market after the easy squeeze money is gone.
— The Warmup Team
Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.