Bitcoin Slips as Markets Flip Risk-Off

Welcome back to The Warmup.

This is me watching the crypto market proceed with its weekly Sunday nuke.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Ethereum and Optimism Are Future-Proofing

• BTC Scalp Short (Risky)

• Bitcoin Slips as Markets Flip Risk-Off

• Calendar

Market: Crypto is red while stocks are mostly flat-to-green. Gold and VIX are up, DXY is down, signaling a mild risk-off tone.

Ethereum and Optimism Are Future-Proofing

What’s going on:

The Ethereum Foundation is moving early on post-quantum security.

Not because quantum computers are here yet, but because upgrading cryptography across a global network takes years. Waiting until it’s urgent would be too late.

That’s why Ethereum just formed a dedicated post-quantum team and backed it with $2M in research incentives, testing, and new cryptographic tooling.

Justin Drake called it a top strategic priority. This is execution, not theory.

Optimism is aligned on the same long-term view. OP announced a 10-year roadmap to phase out today’s wallet signatures across its Superchain, including Base.

The plan moves users toward smart accounts that can support post-quantum security, without changing addresses or touching funds. Slow, coordinated upgrades instead of rushed fixes.

What it means:

Quantum risk isn’t urgent, but migrations are slow.

Ethereum and Optimism are buying time and optionality.

That’s what real infrastructure planning looks like.

BTC Scalp Short (Risky)

What’s going on:

BTC is getting rejected at the EMA 200 (blue) after a strong bounce. Momentum is fading near resistance, setting up a short-term pullback.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Entry: CMP (Current Market Price)

• Target: $86,800

• Stop: $88,600

Directional Bias: Cautiously bearish (scalp)

What we’re waiting for:

• Continued rejection below EMA 200

• Quick move into $86.8K

Bitcoin Slips as Markets Flip Risk-Off

What’s going on:

Bitcoin started the week on the back foot as global tensions pushed investors into safe-haven mode.

BTC briefly slid to just above $86K, its lowest level this year, before stabilizing near $87.8K. ETH took a harder hit, dropping nearly 6% at the lows and still hovering near its weakest levels since mid-December.

This doesn’t look like a real bounce. More like a breather.

The trigger was a mix of macro stress. Trump floating new tariffs on Canada, Middle East tensions rising, US shutdown fears, and Japan potentially stepping into FX markets. Classic risk-off fuel.

The rotation is obvious. Gold just ripped past $5,100 and silver hit record highs. Crypto went the other way.

ETF flows didn’t help either. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $1.7B in outflows last week, adding extra sell pressure.

What it means:

Crypto is trading like a risk asset, not a safe haven.

Until macro uncertainty clears up, expect choppy price action and fragile rallies. This is a market waiting for clarity, not chasing upside.

Key Events this Week

Major token unlocks:

• Kamino (KMNO): ~$10M unlock on Jan 30 (~3.6% of supply)

• Sui (SUI): ~$62M unlock on Feb 1 (~1.15% of supply)

Macroeconomic data calendar:

Mon (Jan 26):

• Core Durable Goods Orders (Dec): Measures business investment demand → stronger prints suggest resilient capex; weakness signals corporate caution.

• Durable Goods Orders (Dec): Tracks big-ticket manufacturing demand → volatile data, but sharp downside surprises can pressure growth expectations.

Tue (Jan 27):

• President Trump Speaks: Potential market-moving headlines → trade policy, tariffs, or geopolitical comments can spark volatility across risk assets.

• CB Consumer Confidence (Jan): Sentiment gauge for household spending → higher confidence supports consumption-driven growth, declines raise slowdown risks.

• Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Jan): Regional manufacturing activity → continued weakness reinforces industrial slowdown narrative.

Wed (Jan 28):

• FOMC Rate Decision: Policy rate expected unchanged → focus shifts to forward guidance and tone.

• FOMC Statement: Key signal for inflation and growth outlook → any shift toward easing rhetoric could support risk assets.

• FOMC Press Conference (Powell): Market-defining event → language around inflation progress, labor market, and timing of cuts will drive rates, equities, and crypto.

Thu (Jan 29):

• Initial Jobless Claims: High-frequency labor market data → rising claims suggest cooling employment; tight labor keeps inflation sticky.

Fri (Jan 30):

• Core PPI (Dec): Producer-level inflation excluding food and energy → upstream price pressures feed into CPI expectations.

• PPI (Dec): Broad wholesale inflation measure → hotter prints complicate the Fed’s easing path; softer data supports risk-on sentiment.

Major Earnings Releases:

• Mon (Jan 26): Ryan Air

• Wed (Jan 28): Tesla, Meta

• Thu (Jan 29): Apple

• Michael Saylor's Strategy buys another 2,932 BTC for $264M as total holdings reach 712,647 BTC

• Global crypto ETPs log $1.7B in weekly outflows as bearish macro sentiment spurs largest withdrawal since November

• Metaplanet sees $680M in unrealized losses on bitcoin holdings in 2025

Liquidity, not narratives, is still the main driver of crypto’s next real move.

While the macro backdrop is improving and selling pressure from long-term holders has eased, the market hasn’t fully rebuilt the liquidity needed for a sustained breakout.

Recent upside has been helped by technical factors and forced short covering, not a fresh wave of capital.

Until liquidity truly returns, the focus is less about new money rushing in and more about existing capital simply stepping back into the space.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.