Bitcoin Slides as Macro Pressure Builds

Welcome back to The Warmup.

Happy Friday from me and everyone else who’s bullish on crypto in 2026.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Bitcoin Slides as Macro Pressure Builds

• FET Trend Reversal Play

• MARA Sells BTC to Play Offense

Market: Crypto is taking a hit alongside equities, with risk assets selling off as volatility spikes, while gold rips higher. Classic flight to safety as fear creeps back into the market.

Bitcoin Slides as Macro Pressure Builds

What’s going on:

Bitcoin slipped under $66K after reports surfaced that the U.S. is actively preparing a potential large-scale military escalation in Iran. The reaction was immediate across markets.

ETH dropped below $2K while oil spiked toward $97, signaling a clear shift toward risk-off sentiment.

At the same time, Trump introduced mixed signals by extending the military pause by 10 days, pointing to ongoing negotiations.

Markets initially bounced on that headline, but the relief didn’t last long as uncertainty crept back in.

All of this is happening right into a packed macro window: a $15B BTC options expiry, fresh PCE inflation data, and a key geopolitical deadline all hitting within a single day.

What it means:

Markets don’t like uncertainty, and right now there’s plenty of it.

You’ve got geopolitics shaking confidence, options expiry potentially forcing volatility, and inflation data that could shift rate expectations.

That combination tends to create sharp, unpredictable moves.

Bottom line: expect a messy session with quick reversals until a clearer narrative takes control.

FET Trend Reversal Play

What’s going on:

FET broke out of a long downtrend with rising volume and is now holding above the 21-day and 50-day EMAs after a clean retest.

Momentum is starting to shift bullish.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Support: $0.20

• Resistance: $0.30

• Breakout target: $0.32 → $0.40

• Breakdown risk: Close below 21-day EMA

Directional Bias: Cautiously bullish

What we’re waiting for:

• Strength above $0.20–$0.25

• Volume on a break of $0.30

• EMAs holding as support

We Just Dropped Our MSTR Playbook

This isn’t just about Bitcoin.

We break down how Strategy is using STRC to fuel a nonstop BTC buying machine… already sitting at $56B.

Most people still don’t get this.

Inside Kaizen, we show you the why behind these setups so you can position early.

MARA Sells BTC to Play Offense

What’s going on:

MARA Holdings sold 15,133 BTC for $1.1B this month, using most of the proceeds to buy back $1B of its own convertible debt at a discount, capturing about $88M in value.

Even after the sale, MARA still holds 38.7K BTC, keeping its spot as the second-largest public holder behind Strategy.

At the same time, MARA and other miners are leaning harder into AI infrastructure and data centers, signaling a shift in how they deploy capital.

What it means:

This is bigger than one sale.

Miners are evolving from pure Bitcoin accumulation plays into hybrid AI + infra businesses, which means BTC is becoming a strategic asset rather than a sacred hold.

If more miners follow, they could become consistent sellers into strength, adding supply during key market moments.

• GameStop didn't sell $324M worth of bitcoin in January, filing shows

• Cathie Wood's ARK Invest turns to Kalshi to inform investment strategies

• Crypto Czar David Sacks leaves post to go to broader White House tech role as legislation faces challenges

This market is forcing a shift from speculation to real investing. The era of blindly buying the top 10 and hoping for beta is over.

You now have to be selective and evaluate projects like actual businesses, focusing on revenue, value creation, and long-term growth.

At the same time, volatility is not a problem, it is the opportunity.

It creates dislocations where strong projects get sold off alongside weak ones, giving you chances to build positions in long-term winners at better prices.

The real edge today is aligning with multi-year mega trends.

Whether it is stablecoins reshaping financial rails or platforms like Hyperliquid bridging crypto and global markets, the winners will come from owning the few assets that truly matter, not chasing noise.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.