Bitcoin Shrugs Off War Shock

Welcome back to The Warmup.

Happy Monday! Just another day scrolling through WWIII, scandals and AGI killing humanity.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Bitcoin Shrugs Off War Shock

• BTC Range Play

• Crypto Market Structure Bill Could Be the Next Big Catalyst

• Calendar

Market: Risk-off mood as crypto dips and volatility rises.

Bitcoin Shrugs Off War Shock

What’s going on:

Bitcoin took a hit over the weekend after U.S. and Israeli forces launched strikes on Iran, triggering a rapid geopolitical escalation.

BTC fell from about $65.5K to $63K, wiping $128B from total crypto market cap and liquidating roughly $449M in longs.

But the selloff didn’t last long.

As markets digested the news, BTC ripped back to $68.2K before settling near $66.3K.

Meanwhile, Hyperliquid stole the spotlight.

Its HIP-3 markets hit record open interest above $1.1B, and the HYPE token jumped from $26 to $32 as traders flocked to 24/7 war-driven volatility.

What it means:

The key signal was resilience. Despite one of the biggest geopolitical shocks in years, BTC dropped less than 4% and quickly recovered.

Historically, war-driven selloffs in crypto tend to reverse once the initial panic clears. The real test now is whether macro pressure builds.

Two things to watch this week:

• ETF flows when U.S. markets reopen

• Any threat to the Strait of Hormuz, which could spike oil and pressure risk assets

If tensions cool, the relief rally could continue. If oil explodes higher, risk markets including crypto may feel the heat.

BTC Range Play

What’s going on:

Bitcoin has been range bound over the past month. Price continues to trade cleanly between key levels, with price currently hovering around the mid range.

As long as this structure holds, range trading remains the play.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Support: $60K → range lows and major buy zone

• Mid Range: $65K → current pivot area\

• Resistance: $72K → range highs

Directional Bias: Neutral to cautiously bullish

Holding the mid range opens the door for swing longs toward $72K. A move back to the lows would likely attract heavy spot buyers.

What we’re waiting for:

• Acceptance above $65K for longs toward range highs

• Sweep of $60K for potential high-timeframe buys

• Clear reaction at range extremes before sizing up

Crypto Market Structure Bill Could Be the Next Big Catalyst

What’s going on:

JPMorgan says U.S. crypto market structure legislation could be approved by mid year, potentially becoming a tailwind for crypto in the second half of 2026.

The proposed CLARITY Act aims to bring long awaited regulatory clarity.

The House has already advanced the bill, but Senate negotiations continue, with stablecoin yield rules and conflict of interest provisions still being debated.

Closed door meetings between the White House, banks, and crypto firms suggest a compromise is still possible.

What it means:

If passed, the bill could materially reshape crypto markets.

It would clarify whether tokens fall under the SEC or CFTC, ease fundraising for new projects, and create a path for tokens to become commodities once sufficiently decentralized.

It could also open the door for major institutions to custody crypto and accelerate tokenization.

Sentiment may be weak now, but regulatory clarity could be the spark for the next institutional wave.

Key Events this Week

Major token unlocks:

• Hyperliquid (HYPE): ~$316M unlock on Mar 6 (~3% of supply)

• Ethena (ENA): ~$4M unlock on Mar 2 (~0.5% of supply)

Macroeconomic data calendar:

Mon (Mar 2):

• February ISM Manufacturing PMI: Key gauge of factory activity → above 50 signals expansion, below 50 points to contraction and potential economic slowdown.

Wed (Mar 4):

• February ADP Employment Data: Early read on private payroll growth → strong job gains suggest labor market strength; weak numbers may raise slowdown concerns.

Thu (Mar 5):

• Initial Jobless Claims: Weekly measure of unemployment filings → rising claims can signal labor market softening, while falling claims indicate resilience.

Fri (Mar 6):

• January Retail Sales: Tracks consumer spending activity → strong sales show healthy demand; weak prints may hint at consumer fatigue.

• February Jobs Report: Official labor market snapshot → a hot report could pressure rate cuts, while a soft print may boost risk assets.

Major Earnings Releases:

• Mon (Mar 2): Berkshire Hathaway

• Vitalik Buterin lays out a two-part plan to overhaul Ethereum's execution layer from the ground up

• Kalshi CEO defends Khamenei market design after backlash

• Former Mt. Gox CEO proposes hard fork to recover $5.2B in BTC from 2011 theft

Crypto isn’t dead. It’s just separating signal from noise.

The real winners today are the protocols generating sustainable revenue and using buybacks to create structural demand while the rest of the market drifts in a demand vacuum.

As massive capital flows chase AI and other high-yield opportunities, only DeFi platforms that tap into real-world capital formation are positioned to scale meaningfully.

If this trend continues, the next cycle won’t be driven by hype. It will be driven by who is actually making money.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.