Bitcoin’s Sell-Off Gets Messy

Welcome back to The Warmup.

Good morning to everyone expect Saylor.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Bitcoin’s Sell-Off Gets Messy

• BTC Relief Bounce Setup

• ETH Outperformance Signals Are Starting to Flash

Market: Crypto is leading the pullback, with BTC below $67K and ETH down over 4%. A stronger dollar and rising volatility suggest risk appetite is cooling in the short term.

Bitcoin’s Sell-Off Gets Messy

What’s going on:

Bitcoin fell below $67K, triggering over $1.4B in long liquidations across crypto.

ETF outflows are now above $3B over 10 days, while Strategy’s first Bitcoin sale in four years has shaken confidence.

MSTR is down over 70% from its high, and STRC is trading below its $100 par value, making it harder for Strategy to raise fresh cash.

What it means:

Bitcoin just lost a major support narrative.

With ETF demand fading and MSTR under pressure, the market looks much more fragile in the short term.

BTC Relief Bounce Setup

What’s going on:

BTC has fallen back into a major support zone around $60K–$62K, an area that previously attracted strong buying pressure.

Price is now trading near $66.5K after a sharp selloff, while still sitting well below the 200-day EMA ($80.7K).

Key levels we’re watching:

• Current Price: ~$66.5K

• Support Zone: $60K–$62K

• Resistance: $70K

• Major Resistance: $80.7K (200D EMA)

• Breakdown Risk: Daily close below $60K

Directional Bias: Cautiously bullish

BTC is approaching a key demand zone where buyers stepped in earlier this year. If support holds, a relief bounce is likely.

What we’re waiting for:

• Strong reaction from the $60K–$62K zone

• Selling pressure to slow down

• Reclaim of $70K as the first sign of strength

The trend is still bearish, but BTC is getting close to a level where risk/reward starts becoming more attractive.

ETH Outperformance Signals Are Starting to Flash

What’s going on:

Standard Chartered says Strategy’s tiny Bitcoin sale could mark the start of ETH outperforming BTC.

The sale was small, just 32 BTC, but the market reaction was interesting. BTC dropped hard, while ETH held up better.

That matters because ETH has something Bitcoin treasury firms don’t: staking yield.

Ethereum treasury companies can earn around 3% on their ETH, which means they have less pressure to sell compared to Bitcoin treasury firms.

What it means:

We’re not calling a full ETH season yet, but the setup is getting interesting.

If ETH/BTC keeps climbing, capital could start rotating from Bitcoin into Ethereum and ETH-related plays.

Great time to keep an eye on ETH strength.

• Ethena taps Anchorage for secure offchain collateral in institutional lending push

• Coinbase invests in Ethena via open market purchase of ENA, flags new partnership

• Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan calls crypto a 'contrarian bet'

Crypto has a funny way of becoming interesting right when everyone stops caring.

A year ago, investors were obsessed with Bitcoin ETFs, institutional adoption, and the next big cycle. Today, AI stocks, robotics, and private tech are stealing the spotlight.

But that is exactly what makes this setup worth watching.

When momentum fades, fundamentals start to matter again. That is why the market is rewarding projects with real revenue, real users, and clear catalysts instead of blindly buying the biggest names.

The best opportunities usually do not show up when everyone feels comfortable. They show up when the trade feels awkward, boring, or too early.

And right now, crypto is starting to look like that kind of bet.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.