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Bitcoin Reacts to Middle East Escalation
PLUS: The Clarity Act Just Cleared a Major Roadblock
Welcome back to The Warmup.
Happy Monday! Greetings from Miami, check out my view.
Here’s what we’re watching:
Market Snapshot
Bitcoin Reacts to Middle East Escalation
The Clarity Act Just Cleared a Major Roadblock
Calendar
Market: Crypto holds steady while equities slip, with BTC leading as volatility rises.
Bitcoin Reacts to Middle East Escalation
What’s going on:
Bitcoin pushed above $80K after Donald Trump announced “Project Freedom,” a US operation to escort ships out of the Strait of Hormuz.
Markets saw this as de-escalation. Oil dropped and BTC hit its highest level since early February.
But the move wasn’t fully supported. ETF inflows were relatively weak, and Michael Saylor didn’t buy last week.
Then the narrative flipped.
Reports that Iran struck a US warship sent oil up 4% and risk assets down. Bitcoin quickly fell from $80.4K to below $79K.
What it means:
Bitcoin is trading like a macro asset right now.
Geopolitics and oil are driving short-term price action more than crypto flows.
Expect volatility and headline-driven moves until tensions cool.
The Clarity Act Just Cleared a Major Roadblock
What’s going on:
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act just took a big step forward.
Senators Thom Tillis and Angela Alsobrooks released updated stablecoin language that removes the biggest blocker.
The compromise is simple. Stablecoin issuers and platforms can’t offer yield just for holding stablecoins, a clear win for banks.
But rewards tied to real activity like transactions, usage, and loyalty programs are still allowed, which keeps crypto incentives alive.
Brian Armstrong summed it up with “Mark it up,” while Paul Grewal said the language protects activity-based rewards across crypto platforms.
Markets reacted fast. Polymarket odds of the bill passing in 2026 jumped to 65%.
What it means:
This is a meaningful unlock for US crypto regulation.
The biggest friction point is now gone, and momentum is clearly building.
The main hurdle left is political, tied to ethics concerns around Donald Trump’s crypto ties.
If that gets resolved, the Clarity Act has a real shot at passing in 2026.
 | HYPE: |
 | ARB: |
 | ETH: |
Key Events this Week
Major token unlocks:
Ethena (ENA): ~$17M unlock on May 5 (~2% of supply)
Macroeconomic data calendar:
Tue (May 5):
March JOLTS Job Openings: Measures labor demand → higher openings signal a tight labor market; declines suggest cooling conditions.
April ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI: Tracks service sector activity → above 50 = expansion; below 50 = contraction, key for overall economic momentum.
Wed (May 6):
April ADP Nonfarm Employment: Private payroll estimate → early signal for the official jobs report and labor market strength.
Fri (May 8):
April Jobs Report: Official employment data (NFP, unemployment, wages) → one of the most important indicators for Fed policy and market direction.
Major Earnings Releases:
Mon (May 4): Palantir, Duolingo,
Tue (May 5): AMD, Strategy
Wed (May 6): Uber, Snapchat
Thu (May 7): Iren, CoreWeave
Will the Clarity Act pass in 2026? |
The market is flashing a rare cluster of high-probability bullish signals that have historically led to strong upside, not reversals.
Despite fears of overextension, the data shows momentum like this typically marks the start of a trend, with only shallow pullbacks along the way.
Instead of focusing on macro noise, the real edge comes from reading market behavior and recognizing these repeatable turning-point patterns.
The evidence points to a continued rally into 2026, with dips likely being opportunities rather than warning signs.
— The Warmup Team
Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.