Bitcoin Holds Near $77k

Welcome back to The Warmup.

Happy Wednesday. Yields jumped. Oil jumped. Crypto is deciding whether $77k is a floor or a stop on the way down.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Bitcoin Holds Near $77k

• WTI Triangle Breakout Play

• Spot BTC ETFs See Outflows

Market: Bitcoin is holding near $77K as crypto pulls back, while equities and gold remain strong.

Bitcoin Holds Near $77k

What’s going on:

Bitcoin is holding near $77,000 on Wednesday after a sharp August rally, as a global bond selloff, higher oil, and rising Fed hike odds pressure risk assets.

Japan's 10-year yield stayed above 3%, U.S. 10-year yields pushed toward about 4.8%, and Brent crude moved above $95 after renewed U.S.-Iran strikes.

CME FedWatch has recently priced roughly a two-thirds chance of a September hike (about 68% in early-September prints).

U.S. stocks closed lower Tuesday: S&P 500 at 7,631.47 (−0.71%), Nasdaq at 26,099.77 (−1.03%). Crypto followed. Bitcoin is about $76,800 this morning, down roughly 1.3% over 24 hours, still above the mid-$70k zone that held after last week's $81k tag.

What it means:

Higher yields and a firmer dollar make non-yielding assets harder to hold. Bitcoin sits in that bucket.

The tape is a test of August's breakout.

Friday's jobs report and next week's CPI land before the Sept 15–16 FOMC. Until then, $75k–$78k is the zone that decides whether this is a pause or a fade.

WTI Triangle Breakout Play

What’s going on:

WTI broke above its multi-month triangle and is now trading around $91.35, signaling bullish momentum.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Support: $88–90

• Resistance: $92.40

• Target: $96–100

• Invalidation: Below $88

Directional Bias: Bullish

Bulls now need to hold $90 and clear $92.40 for continuation.

What we’re waiting for:

• $90 holds as support

• Break above $92.40

• Follow-through toward $96+

Spot BTC ETFs See Outflows

What’s going on:

U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs flipped to a $236.5M net outflow on Sept 1.

BlackRock's IBIT led with $201.2M out. Fidelity's FBTC lost $43.7M. Bitwise's BITB took in $8.4M.

The same day, spot ether ETFs stayed positive with an $8.6M net inflow, led by ETHB at $11.2M.

That follows a strong late-August stretch for bitcoin ETFs, including $216.7M of inflows on Aug 31.

What it means:

Flows can reverse in a day without ending the institutional channel. One outflow session after a multi-day bid is de-risking.

Watch whether Sept 2–3 stay negative. Sustained bitcoin outflows with ether still green would point to rotation inside crypto.

Price still has to live with the Fed calendar either way.

• Kalshi and Polymarket's combined volume falls 15% in August, first monthly decline in a year

• G20 finance leaders vow to establish 'clear pathways' for digital assets innovation

• Hyperliquid Strategies expands equity facility to $2.5B from $1B

August gave bitcoin a breakout. This week asks whether that breakout can live next to higher yields, oil, and a Fed still willing to hike.

ETF demand can cushion dips, but it does not cancel jobs, CPI, or the Sept 15 Clarity cloture. Treat $75k–$78k as the near-term tell.

Hold it and August looks like digestion, lose it cleanly and the market is repricing the hike path first.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.