Bitcoin Drops Below $69K as Risk-Off Selling Accelerates

Welcome back to The Warmup.

Happy Friday! NVDA already ruined the party, and judging by its price action, BTC seems to have slept with someone too.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Bitcoin Drops Below $69K as Risk-Off Selling Accelerates

• BTC Weekly EMA200 Test

• MSCI Drops Strategy From Major Indexes

Market: Bitcoin and Ethereum remain under pressure, while Solana continues to show relative strength. Traditional markets are mixed, with gold gaining and the dollar edging higher.

Bitcoin Below $69K as Risk-Off Selling Accelerates

What’s going on:

Bitcoin fell to $68,400 overnight, its lowest level since mid-August, before recovering to around $69,200. Selling pressure intensified amid Nvidia-related market jitters, a stronger dollar, Fed rate concerns, and continued spot ETF outflows.

More than $1.4 billion in crypto positions were liquidated over 24 hours, mostly leveraged longs, accelerating the sell-off.

What it means:

This is a reminder of how quickly leverage can amplify market moves. With ETF flows already negative and macro conditions deteriorating, forced liquidations are adding fuel to the downside.

The key is distinguishing temporary leverage-driven selling from a genuine deterioration in demand.

BTC Weekly EMA200 Test

What’s going on:

BTC has dropped below the weekly EMA200, currently around $69.7K. The level we expected to act as support is now being tested, with the weekly candle still open.

Key levels we’re watching:

• EMA200: $69.7K → critical level to reclaim

• Near-term support: $67.5K

• Next support: $65K–$60K

Directional Bias: Cautious / bearish until reclaimed

Losing the weekly EMA200 weakens the bounce thesis. A weekly close back above it would be an encouraging signal.

What we’re waiting for:

• Weekly close above the EMA200

• Bullish momentum returning on the daily chart

• Confirmation before adding to spot

No DCA yet. Patience until BTC shows buyers are back.

MSCI Drops Strategy From Major Indexes

What’s going on:

MSCI will remove Strategy from its USA Index and related benchmarks on November 30. Metaplanet will also be removed from a Japanese small-cap index.

The decision follows new rules targeting companies whose assets are primarily non-operating, including firms holding large crypto treasuries. Passive funds tracking these indexes will be forced to sell their shares.

What it means:

This creates a potential source of selling pressure for Strategy, independent of Bitcoin's price. Index inclusion has provided automatic demand for its stock, and losing that demand could make future capital raises more expensive.

The key takeaway: Strategy's stock performance isn't just about Bitcoin. Index rules, passive fund flows, and access to capital also matter.

• Bitcoin tumbles below $69,000 as Nvidia turmoil adds to Fed-driven market jitters

• UK, Singapore, and Thailand central banks complete foreign exchange settlement trial linking traditional and tokenized systems

• JPMorgan reports 36% rise in Strategy share holdings and $540M in BlackRock's bitcoin ETF

The market is telling two very different stories right now. On one side, macro uncertainty, ETF outflows, and leveraged liquidations continue to create selling pressure, reminding us how sensitive crypto remains to liquidity and broader risk appetite. On the other, institutional adoption continues to advance, with central banks experimenting with tokenized settlement systems and regulated stablecoins expanding across blockchain networks.

These developments won't stop Bitcoin from falling further in the short term, but they highlight an important distinction: price action and industry progress don't always move together. Liquidations and index rebalancing are temporary market forces, while changes to financial infrastructure could have lasting implications. The challenge for investors is to avoid getting caught up in every short-term move and stay focused on whether the underlying adoption thesis is actually changing.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.