Bitcoin Crashes but Rebound Signals Are Building

Welcome back to The Warmup.

Bitcoin just hit a six month low and the market’s acting like the world is ending.

Here’s what we’re watching:

• Market Snapshot

• Bitcoin Drops to Six-Month Low as Liquidity Tightens

• ETH Support Reclaim Setup

• Harvard Quietly Triples Its Bitcoin Exposure

Market: Crypto’s taking a light pullback while equities stay mixed, with Solana still holding strong and a rising VIX showing a small shift toward caution across risk assets.

Bitcoin Drops to Six-Month Low as Liquidity Tightens

What’s going on:

Bitcoin fell to around 93,000 over the weekend, its lowest level since May, before rebounding slightly to the mid 95,000s.

The move was driven mostly by tightening liquidity.

The US government shutdown kept the Treasury General Account elevated, which pulled liquidity out of markets. Funding indicators like repo markets and T bill spreads are also showing stress similar to late 2018 and 2019.

This pressure happened at the same time that expectations for a December rate cut dropped. That shift led to more than $600M in liquidations, including $243M from bitcoin alone. US spot bitcoin ETFs also saw $1.1B in outflows last week.

What it means:

This pullback reflects tight funding conditions rather than any break in bitcoin fundamentals. Once government operations return to normal and liquidity begins to expand again, we expect crypto to be one of the first markets to rebound.

Japan is also considering a $110B stimulus package, which could support global liquidity.

For now the market is in a fear driven phase, but the broader outlook for digital assets remains constructive once liquidity conditions improve.

ETH Support Reclaim Setup

What’s going on:

ETH tapped the support zone again and swept liquidity beneath it, but buyers stepped in quickly. The last few 4h closes look solid, showing early signs of strength after a clean retest.

Key levels we’re watching:

• Support: $3,050–3,200 → buyers defending this zone consistently

• Resistance: $3,800–3,900 → major supply area and where the next reaction likely forms

• EMA200 (4h): sitting just above resistance and acting as dynamic pressure

Directional Bias: Mildly bullish

What we’re waiting for:

• A 4h close above $3,300 to show continuation

• Strength on retests as ETH pushes toward resistance

• Sustained buyer flow as it approaches the EMA200 (blue)

Harvard Quietly Triples Its Bitcoin Exposure

What’s going on:

Harvard University made a major move into bitcoin last quarter.

Regulatory filings show the endowment increased its position in BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust to 6.8M shares, now valued at about $443M.

That is a 257% jump from the 1.9M shares it reported in June, making IBIT its largest disclosed US holding.

The allocation is still a small slice of Harvard’s $56.9B endowment, but the size of the increase signals rising comfort among large institutions with bitcoin as a portfolio asset.

What it means:

Institutional investors are steadily increasing their bitcoin exposure through regulated ETF vehicles rather than direct custody.

The pace of accumulation from endowments and sovereign funds suggests bitcoin is moving from a speculative bet to a legitimate allocation within large portfolios.

If this trend continues, ETF demand could become one of the strongest long term drivers of institutional crypto ownership.

Key Events this Week

Major token unlocks:

• LayerZero (ZRO): ~$36M unlock on Nov 20 (~7.3% of supply)

Macroeconomic data calendar:

Mon (Nov 18):

• NY Fed Manufacturing Index: Gauges regional factory activity and business conditions → rising numbers show improving production; weak readings point to slowing demand.

Thu (Nov 19):

• Fed Meeting Minutes: Provides insight into policymakers’ latest debate on inflation, labor markets, and the path of interest rates.

Thu (Nov 20):

• September Jobs Report: Labor-market snapshot → strong hiring supports growth; softening jobs signal cooling momentum.

• Philly Fed Manufacturing Index: Regional manufacturing health → helps confirm trends seen in the NY Fed survey.

• October Existing Home Sales: Measures resale housing activity → higher sales show consumer confidence and housing strength; lower sales flag affordability pressures.

Fri (Nov 21):

• November Services PMI: Tracks service-sector activity → above 50 means expansion, below 50 signals slowdown.

• November Manufacturing PMI: National factory activity → critical gauge of industrial momentum entering year-end.

Major Earnings Releases:

• Wed (Nov 19): Nvidia, Bullish

• Thu (Nov 20): Walmart

• Tether may lead $1.2B round in German Robotics startup

• Harvard triples down on BTC bet

• Ark Invest buys $15.6M in Circle shares

Bitcoin and high-growth assets deliver huge long-term gains, but they spend most of the time in drawdowns and boring chop.

If you want big upside, you have to be comfortable with volatility and long stretches of no new highs.

If you prefer stability, the S&P500 or Nasdaq will give steadier but much smaller returns.

Once you understand what you own and why you own it, the fear fades and the long-term ride becomes much easier.

— The Warmup Team

Always do your own research. This newsletter is supplemental material to help educate readers as they make their own decisions. Projects mentioned here are provided to give a potential early-mover advantage.